Bitcoin Cycle

Last updated: July 18, 2026

Bitcoin price action remained muted, trading at 63,868.00, a decrease of 0.77%. Sentiment among high-profile holders is mixed; Michael Saylor indicated intentions to purchase more Bitcoin, while reports indicate Donald Trump's money managers moved a $1.4 billion crypto windfall into bonds and stocks. Additionally, a son of Donald Trump reportedly lost approximately 600 million from the family fortune following a major Bitcoin bet.

Institutional integration accelerated through significant capital moves and infrastructure launches. Citadel Securities invested $400 million into Crypto.com, valuing the exchange at $20 billion, and Visa launched a stablecoin management platform targeting over 200 million merchants. Institutional appetite showed a recovery as crypto ETFs saw $281.8 million in inflows—the first weekly inflow since early May—with Bitcoin-specific funds accounting for $197.4 million. Bank of America further signaled commitment by appointing new leadership to manage AI and cryptocurrency strategies.

Global regulatory legitimacy is expanding, though U.S. legislative progress has stalled. Japan passed a law recognizing cryptocurrencies as financial assets, South Korea plans to include them under state asset management law, and the UK adopted "No Gain, No Loss" tax treatment for liquidity pools and lending. Conversely, the Crypto Clarity Act faces a partisan deadlock in the U.S. Senate; Democratic negotiators have indicated they do not support the GOP framework, driving Polymarket odds for the act's 2026 passage to a record low of 31%.

Key variable to watch: Whether the partisan deadlock in the U.S. Senate permanently blocks the Crypto Clarity Act or if a compromise is reached before the summer recess.

Last updated: July 11, 2026

Bitcoin experienced high volatility this week, rebounding to $64,000 on presidential endorsements before falling below $62,000 due to Middle East tensions following the end of a U.S. Memorandum of Understanding with Iran. Momentum was initially driven by the White House's confirmation that it is structuring a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, though progress is currently stalled by a power struggle between the Treasury and Commerce departments. Technical indicators showed a potential W-shaped reversal, and options traders reached their highest level of bullish sentiment since December 2020.

Institutional adoption is diverging between corporate integration and venture capital sentiment. Vanguard is hiring a new head of crypto, and Coinbase secured a UK investment services authorization, leading Tiger Securities to upgrade Coinbase to a "Buy" rating with a $200 price target. Conversely, crypto VC funds are shifting focus away from digital assets, and the global stablecoin market contracted by $7.7 billion in June to $312 billion. In the EU, 70% of Binance user withdrawals transitioned to self-hosted wallets to avoid MiCA-regulated platforms.

The U.S. regulatory environment has shifted toward aggressive pro-industry alignment, with SEC Chair Paul Atkins aiming to make the U.S. the "crypto capital of the world" and the CFTC ruling out a Central Bank Digital Currency. A critical deadline looms on August 7th for the passage of the Crypto Clarity Act before the Senate recess. While tokenized equities saw a 279% month-over-month volume increase to $3.4 billion, other setbacks occurred, including India's central bank supporting a cryptocurrency ban and New Hampshire rejecting a $100 million Bitcoin bond.

Key variable to watch: Whether the Crypto Clarity Act passes by the August 7th deadline or if the internal government dispute over the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve persists.

Last updated: July 04, 2026

Bitcoin hit a fresh 21-month low below $58,000 this week as downward pressure intensified from record institutional exits and corporate pivot risks. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their worst month on record in June with $4.06 billion in outflows, contributing to a total of $5.4 billion in net outflows for the first half of 2026—the first net-negative half since their inception. Market sentiment further deteriorated as K Wave Media sold its entire Bitcoin treasury to pivot toward AI data centers and Glassnode reported that, for the first time in this drawdown, more Bitcoin is held at a loss than in profit.

Institutional dynamics shifted significantly as MicroStrategy moved from pure accumulation to a new capital framework authorizing the sale of up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin to fund operations and dividends. This shift, combined with JPMorgan's warnings regarding the company's risk profile, led TD Cowen and Canaccord Genuity to slash their price targets for the stock. Despite this, some buyers are emerging; Metaplanet acquired 2,823 BTC for $170 million, and Grant Cardone reported holdings of over 2,700 BTC.

The regulatory landscape has become increasingly fragmented and volatile. Legislative optimism for the CLARITY Act diminished, with Galaxy Research lowering its passing probability to 50% and other analysts warning it is unlikely to pass this year. Meanwhile, the launch of "Open USD"—a joint stablecoin by BlackRock, Visa, and Mastercard—caused Circle's stock to drop over 15%. While the EU began enforcing strict MiCA penalties and Taiwan formalized stablecoin oversight, the US saw crypto firms become the largest corporate political spenders for the 2026 midterms, spending $189 million.

Key variable to watch: Whether the reported $3.11 billion in outflows over ten sessions reverses into a sustainable recovery or if Bitcoin drops further toward the $45,000 level cited by market participants.

Last updated: June 29, 2026

Bitcoin entered a steep downtrend this week, hitting a 21-month low of $58,344 and marking a 35% decline year-to-date. This represents a sharp reversal from the previous week's consolidation above $100,000. The sell-off was driven by record institutional exits, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing $1.34 billion in net outflows this week and $6.4 billion over the last 30 days. Capital is shifting toward semiconductor stocks, contributing to a cumulative $12 billion exit from gold and Bitcoin ETFs since April.

The decline has severely impacted corporate treasuries and leveraged proxies. MicroStrategy’s shares fell to a 16-month low, extending losses to 84% from their peak, while its mNAV dropped to 1.09×. Michael Saylor’s Strategy fund now carries an unrealized loss of $14 billion, and the company's market value has traded below its Bitcoin holdings for much of the last seven months. Broader market distress is evident as 53% of all circulating BTC is currently held at an unrealized loss, with over $1 billion in total liquidations recorded following the drop below $60,000.

Despite the price collapse, institutional activity remains bifurcated between capital flight and strategic expansion. Bitplanet signed an MOU with Antalpha to deploy $10.8 million in mining equipment in Oman and Paraguay, while 21Shares maintains a year-end price target of $100,000. Market sentiment is now tied to macroeconomic and regulatory catalysts, specifically Federal Reserve rate cuts and the passage of the CLARITY Act. The latter is viewed by Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz as a primary trigger for traditional finance firms to begin tokenizing mortgages and stocks.

Key variable to watch: The July 17 CLARITY Act hearing and its potential to reverse the current institutional outflow trend.

Last updated: June 28, 2026

Bitcoin consolidated in the $102,000–$108,000 range this week following last month's break above the $100k psychological level. Spot ETF flows remained positive but moderated from the March peak — BlackRock's IBIT recorded $420M in net inflows, while Fidelity's FBTC saw $180M. The deceleration in ETF flows is normal post-breakout consolidation behaviour; cumulative ETF AUM now exceeds $85B, making the product complex one of the fastest-adopted ETF launches in history.

The post-halving supply dynamic is playing out as expected: daily issuance fell to 450 BTC in April, and miner revenue has stabilised at elevated levels due to high transaction fees from ordinals and rune activity. Miner capitulation risk — a traditional mid-cycle headwind — appears minimal given current hashrate profitability metrics. Long-term holder supply continues to compress, with coins unmoved for 1+ year at cycle highs.

Macro correlation remains the key debate: BTC's correlation to the Nasdaq has risen back toward 0.65 from the 0.4 lows of late 2025, suggesting the market is treating it as a risk asset rather than a pure store of value in the current environment. A Fed cut in September would likely be a BTC catalyst through both the dollar weakness channel and the risk-on channel. Key variable to watch: US spot BTC ETF flow data next week — a return to $1B+ weekly net inflows would be a strong signal for the next leg higher.