Commodities Supercycle

Last updated: July 18, 2026

Energy markets have shifted from a bearish outlook to a sharp risk-premium environment as U.S.-Iran military hostilities intensified. Brent crude surged to $87.49 per barrel, while U.S. oil futures climbed above $80 following reports of a thwarted missile strike in Qatar and attacks in the Black Sea. Supply tightness is critical, with the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve hitting its lowest level since 1983 and Gulf Coast gasoline stocks at their lowest since 2017. These disruptions are offsetting a severe demand collapse in China, where June crude imports plunged 41% year-on-year to a decade low.

Precious metals experienced extreme volatility, with spot gold crashing below $4,000—wiping $1 trillion from gold and silver markets in one day—due to inflation fears and hawkish Federal Reserve comments. However, bullion recovered to $4,008.18, supported by structural central bank buying, including a 48-tonne purchase by China. Industrial metals remain fragmented; copper faced an 18.3% year-on-year production drop from Codelco in May and weather-related shipment delays in Chile, while iron ore prices declined on weakening Chinese demand and a major BHP strike in the Pilbara.

The energy transition is colliding with a massive infrastructure backlash as AI-driven power demand triggers state-level moratoriums. New York suspended the development of data centers over 50 megawatts, contributing to roughly $286 billion in project cancellations or delays between 2025 and Q1 2026. Despite this, capital is aggressively pivoting toward nuclear and fusion, with global fusion investment surging 69% to $4.5 billion. In agriculture, severe weather has reduced Australian wheat crop expectations by nearly 30%, while palm oil prices rose on biofuel demand linked to higher crude costs.

Key variable to watch: Whether the U.S. strategic pivot toward Iraq and the escalating kinetic activity in the Persian Gulf can sustain oil prices above $85 despite record-low Chinese import volumes.

Last updated: July 11, 2026

Energy markets experienced extreme volatility this week as a bearish outlook was abruptly interrupted by the collapse of the U.S.-Iran truce. After OPEC+ agreed to increase August production by 188,000 barrels per day and Saudi Arabia implemented a historic $11 per barrel cut for Asian Arab Light crude, prices trended toward a projected $60 floor. However, U.S. military strikes on Iran and IRGC attacks on commercial shipping in the Hormuz corridor caused Brent to surge toward $79 per barrel. This geopolitical spike was short-lived, as record UAE production of 4.1 million barrels per day and increased Hormuz transit flows pushed WTI back below $72.00 by week's end.

Precious and industrial metals are balancing structural growth against short-term volatility. Spot gold fluctuated between $4,022 and $4,176, supported by record central bank accumulation and the launch of a gold clearing system in Hong Kong, though it faced weekly losses as Middle East tensions reignited inflation and rate-hike fears. Industrial metals saw mixed results; iron ore trended higher due to supply constraints and a looming strike at BHP's Port Hedland terminal, while copper faced production declines from Chile's Codelco. Notably, soaring silver prices have pushed China's largest solar manufacturer to replace silver with copper in cell production.

The energy transition is shifting toward rapid commercialization and nuclear integration to meet AI-driven power demands. The U.S., Japan, and South Korea signed a trilateral pact for Small Modular Reactor (SMR) deployment, while the EU and UK integrated nuclear power into long-term fiscal frameworks. This trend is sparking significant financial activity, including a $3.5 billion debt raise by TeraWulf for a Kentucky data center campus and IPO filings from Holtec Nuclear Corporation and a Bezos-backed fusion startup. In agriculture, volatility remains high as coffee prices saw their largest jump since the dot-com era and cocoa reached a six-month high.

Key variable to watch: Whether the resurgence of U.S.-Iran hostilities sustains a geopolitical risk premium or if record UAE production and IEA's upwardly revised 2026 supply forecast drive prices back toward $60.

Last updated: July 04, 2026

Energy prices are under intensifying downward pressure as geopolitical risk premiums evaporate following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire in Doha. Brent crude experienced its largest quarterly price drop in six years, settling at $72.92 per barrel, while Citi forecasts a further decline to $60 by year-end. Supply is increasing as shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to over 10 million barrels per day, the UAE hit record June export levels of 3.7 million barrels per day, and Canada agreed to a new pipeline to export up to 1 million barrels daily to Asia.

Precious metals shifted from a steep quarterly decline to a strong rebound, with spot gold rising to $4,162.85 per ounce following less hawkish commentary from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Gold has now overtaken U.S. government bonds as the world's top reserve asset, supported by China's record May imports of 163 tonnes and the upcoming launch of a gold clearing system in Hong Kong. Industrial metals remain volatile; copper hit record highs above $14,000 per metric ton due to AI data center demand before retreating, while aluminum faces structural substitution risks as BMW and Ferrari switch from copper to aluminum.

The energy transition is characterized by a massive pivot toward nuclear and private equity-led renewables to support AI power demands. KKR is aggressively expanding its footprint, acquiring EDF’s North American renewable assets for $4.2 billion and launching a $1.3 billion joint venture in South Korea. While technical milestones were hit with three reactors achieving criticality and Valar Atomics powering an Nvidia chip, extreme heat caused nuclear output lows in France and Hungary. In agriculture, markets are split between bearish U.S. corn stockpiles and supply shocks, including a potential 20% decline in Ivory Coast cocoa production and a 30% drop in European corn yields due to heat.

Key variable to watch: Whether OPEC+ raises output quotas in its upcoming Sunday meeting and if this further accelerates the decline in Brent crude prices.

Last updated: June 29, 2026

Oil prices collapsed from previous levels, with Brent slipping below $75 and U.S. crude falling below $70 for the first time since March 1. This retreat to pre-war levels follows a U.S.–Iran interim peace deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with Persian Gulf crude exports recovering to at least 75% of pre-war levels. While the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has reached its lowest level since 1983 following a 285-million-barrel drawdown, increased Gulf flows and Saudi Arabia's resumption of loading at Ras Tanura have eased immediate supply fears.

Gold experienced high volatility, dipping below $4,000 per ounce as safe-haven demand waned, before rebounding to $4,039.89 following softer-than-expected U.S. PCE inflation data. Structural demand remains robust, evidenced by China's May gold imports reaching a two-year high of roughly 163 tonnes. However, short-term pressures persist as major Chinese banks tighten controls on retail precious-metal trading and the market reacts to hawkish Federal Reserve expectations.

Industrial metals and agricultural commodities face mixed headwinds. LME aluminum and copper inventories declined, yet Shanghai aluminum futures hit 2026 lows and tin fell over 3% on weak industrial demand. In agriculture, palm oil futures saw their largest one-month decline due to a strengthening ringgit and falling crude prices, while a "super El Niño" threat is prompting the creation of new commodities funds. Meanwhile, AI infrastructure spending is driving a nuclear renaissance, with the Trump administration offering $17.5 billion in loans for ten new Westinghouse reactors.

Key variable to watch: The stability of the U.S.–Iran peace deal and whether any renewed tensions trigger a return of the Hormuz risk premium to oil prices.

Last updated: June 28, 2026

Brent crude remains elevated above $90/bbl as the Hormuz risk premium persists despite partial de-escalation signals. OPEC+ held its production policy steady at this week's meeting, resisting pressure from non-Gulf members to raise output to offset geopolitical supply risk. The cartel's discipline is firmer than at any point since 2022, reflecting Saudi Arabia's fiscal break-even at $80 and the group's shared interest in price stability above $85.

Gold held near $3,050 this week, supported by a softening dollar, central bank buying from China and India, and continued safe-haven demand from the Hormuz situation. The structural central bank bid — which has been running at 1,000+ tonnes per year since 2022 — is the key underappreciated driver of gold's multi-year bull case. It has fundamentally changed the supply/demand balance independent of Western investor positioning.

Copper is the most interesting commodity this week: LME inventories fell to multi-month lows as Chinese grid infrastructure demand accelerated and new mine supply from Chile underperformed guidance. The copper supply gap thesis — driven by EV adoption, grid buildout, and data centre construction — is playing out on a slower timeline than bulls projected in 2022–23, but the structural case remains intact. Key variable: whether China's July stimulus announcements include meaningful infrastructure acceleration, which would be a sharp copper catalyst.