Commodities Supercycle

Last updated: September 26, 2026

Energy markets are experiencing a widening divergence between paper benchmarks and physical reality. Brent and WTI benchmarks declined toward $105 and $93 respectively on diplomacy regarding the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi pipeline restarts, but physical fuel stress has intensified. US retail diesel hit a record $6.527 per gallon, prompting calls for an export ban, while France reports retail outages up to 16% in some regions. Physical logistics are deteriorating, evidenced by record tanker costs of $1.2 million per day, record-low water levels on the Rhine, and Ukrainian drone strikes disabling Russia's Perm refinery.

Metals are shifting from a monetary hedge narrative toward industrial supply bottlenecks. Gold pulled back to $4,244–$4,282 as energy-driven inflation revived Federal Reserve rate hike bets, despite record Chinese imports and strong ETF inflows. Conversely, copper hit all-time highs on collapsing Shanghai inventories and planned refinery maintenance, though it recently retreated on higher Treasury yields. Strategic minerals are seeing aggressive diversification moves, with US firms securing long-term tungsten supply from Vietnam and Norway planning a major rare earth project by 2028 to counter China's 94% share of magnet manufacturing.

Agricultural and energy transition markets are characterized by fragmented trade flows and accelerated infrastructure approvals. Grain prices drifted lower as the Washington summit failed to produce concrete Chinese purchase commitments, though rubber hit a 15-year high and India resumed wheat exports to Bangladesh. In the energy transition, momentum has shifted from funding to regulation; Italy reversed its nuclear ban, Taiwan plans a plant restart, and the US DOE announced $1.9 billion for grid improvements. Big Tech is now directly funding capacity, evidenced by Alphabet's 96 MW nuclear deal in Georgia and South Korea's $20 billion commitment to a Texas power project.

Key variable to watch: Whether the US implements a diesel export ban to stabilize domestic prices and how this affects the "free flow" of fuel demanded by EU partners.

Last updated: September 19, 2026

Energy markets have shifted from a price spike to a physical availability crisis. While Brent crude retreated from $107 to $103.80 as geopolitical premiums unwound, the physical diesel market remains acutely tight, with U.S. retail averages hitting a record $6.30 per gallon and outages appearing in Texas and Florida. The systemic shock is intensifying as satellite imagery confirms catastrophic damage to the Saudi East-West pipeline, potentially cutting Yanbu exports by up to 2.7 million barrels per day for six weeks. This is compounded by Saudi Aramco canceling next month's crude allocations to European refiners and ExxonMobil shutting a major Midwest diesel refinery, removing 11 million gallons of daily capacity.

Precious metals have decoupled from hawkish U.S. monetary policy, breaking out decisively despite a Federal Reserve rate hike. Gold surged to $4,346.40 and silver jumped to $67.19, driven by massive undisclosed Chinese accumulation via London OTC channels—including 35 tonnes in July—and a structural shift of bullion from the New York Fed to the Bank of England. Industrial metals remain volatile; copper steadied near $14,000 a ton as warehouse deliveries eased a squeeze, while resource nationalism is escalating for tungsten and yttrium, with the U.S. Pentagon investing $450 million for a 20% stake in Element Group to secure supply.

The energy transition is bifurcating between regulatory retreats and capital-intensive infrastructure booms. The U.S. EPA has repealed carbon standards for power plants, signaling a risk-off shift for climate mandates, yet data center power demand is unlocking massive capital for nuclear and backup generation. This is evidenced by Westinghouse seeking a $50 billion IPO valuation and Amazon’s $8 billion backup generator deal with Generac. Meanwhile, a "super El Niño" is creating a multi-commodity agricultural squeeze, threatening Indonesian palm oil, New Zealand dairy, and Indian crop yields, while Russia weaponizes wheat dominance amid Black Sea disruptions.

Key variable to watch: Whether the U.S. government activates emergency powers to boost refining capacity or releases Strategic Petroleum Reserve oil to stabilize record diesel prices.

Last updated: September 12, 2026

Energy markets have transitioned from acute volatility to a systemic shock following catastrophic damage to Saudi Arabia's East-West crude oil pipeline. Brent crude topped $109 per barrel before settling at $105.86, while U.S. retail diesel hit a record national average of $6.06 per gallon. Supply constraints are severe, with Saudi Arabia reporting oil production at its lowest level since 1990 and global observed inventories plunging by 95 million barrels in August. These disruptions are compounded by record supertanker rates of $800,000 per day and surging European natural gas prices, which reached their highest levels since late 2022.

Precious and industrial metals are diverging sharply as structural drivers clash with short-term volatility. Gold maintains a structural floor near $4,400 per ounce, supported by record August ETF inflows of $17.9 billion and continued aggressive accumulation by the People’s Bank of China. In contrast, industrial metals are retreating; copper, which hit an all-time high of $14,858.50 per ton this week on AI data center demand, ended the week with its first loss since June as U.S. tariff plans stalled. Iron ore also saw its steepest weekly loss since June due to deteriorating steel mill margins and weak hot metal output in China.

Agricultural commodities are accelerating toward a crisis, with the Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index recording its largest monthly gain since 2012. Global food inflation is being driven by record-high U.S. ground beef prices ($7.158 per pound) and surging wheat prices linked to Black Sea instability. Supply tightening is evident in sugar markets, where El Niño-induced dryness in India is prompting mills to seek 800,000 tons of raw sugar imports. Meanwhile, the nuclear energy pivot is seeing massive capital inflows, including a $15 billion AI infrastructure investment by Google and a $1.9 billion DOE loan to restart the Duane Arnold plant, though new data center restrictions in Texas and Pennsylvania introduce regulatory headwinds.

Key variable to watch: Whether the systemic damage to Saudi pipeline infrastructure triggers a sustained breach of $110 Brent or if IEA demand warnings from China force a price correction.

Last updated: September 05, 2026

Energy markets have entered a period of acute volatility following the U.S. implementation of a "tanker for tanker" strike policy against Iran. Brent crude surged to $97 per barrel, while U.S. retail diesel hit a record high of $5.85 per gallon. To stabilize markets and replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the U.S. secured a 25-year agreement for majority control of 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan crude, including 100-year concessions for 17 fields. Simultaneously, Russia has pivoted its strategic dependency toward China, with Deputy PM Novak stating Chinese shares of Russian gas exports will exceed 60% by 2030.

Precious metals are experiencing a structural regime shift as gold officially overtook the U.S. dollar as the world's largest global reserve asset. Despite this milestone and strong central bank buying—including 20 tonnes added by the People's Bank of China in July—spot prices remain volatile, fluctuating between $4,285 and $4,472 per ounce. This volatility is driven by a conflict between safe-haven demand and hawkish Federal Reserve expectations following strong U.S. payrolls data. Physical security has become a priority for European actors, evidenced by the Dutch central bank repatriating 86 tonnes of gold from North America to London.

Agricultural commodities are accelerating toward a crisis level, with the FAO World Food Price Index hitting its highest level since 2022. Rice prices have climbed 60% since the start of 2026, and the Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index recorded its strongest August gain since 2012. This surge is fueled by a collapse in Ukrainian grain exports—falling to 981,000 metric tons in August from 2.35 million a year prior—and severe weather threatening cocoa output in Ghana. Meanwhile, the energy transition is facing new risks as AI-driven power demand triggers grid instability and sabotage attempts on German power substations.

Key variable to watch: Whether the U.S. seizure of Venezuelan reserves and domestic shale expansion can offset the price spikes caused by kinetic escalation in the Strait of Hormuz.

Last updated: August 29, 2026

Precious metals experienced a sharp correction this week after spot gold climbed nearly 8% to $4,657 per ounce before falling 3% to $4,464.15 following Federal Reserve signals prioritizing price stability. This volatility follows a massive speculative surge characterized by a record $22.2 billion increase in net futures bets and $6.4 billion in ETF inflows. Industrial metals remain tight; copper tested all-time peaks driven by U.S. tariff threats, while zinc reached a four-year high amid thin physical supply, prompting Boliden to acquire a majority stake in Nexa Resources for $1.3 billion.

Energy markets saw Brent crude top $93 per barrel before falling below $88 as U.S. Navy mine clearance in the Strait of Hormuz and diplomatic talks between Iran and Oman reduced geopolitical premiums. These gains were offset by record-high U.S. domestic production and reports that 130 million barrels of oil were directed to foreign markets over two weeks. However, structural risks persist as Russian refinery disruptions and drone attacks on Black Sea loadings cause supplies to drop, while European gas prices exceeded €70/MWh due to storage shortfalls.

Agricultural commodities are escalating toward a global food shock, with Chicago wheat futures hitting a three-year high of $7.58 per bushel. This rally is driven by a 60% month-on-month collapse in Ukrainian grain exports and projected output drops in South Africa. Rice prices have surged over 47% since the start of the Iran war, while severe weather in Europe is pushing EU sugar production toward a 38-year low.

The energy transition is pivoting toward heavy nuclear integration to meet AI power demands, which are projected to reach 315 gigawatts globally by 2033. This shift is evidenced by a $2.2 billion U.S. Army investment in military microreactors and a $25 billion Russia-Iran nuclear agreement. While uranium prices hit six-month highs, the renewables sector faces distress, with major solar manufacturers reporting increased losses and data centers facing average 3.7-year grid connection delays.

Key variable to watch: Whether the projected structural tightening of the uranium market and the surge in AI power demand can offset the financial downturn in the solar sector.

Last updated: August 22, 2026

Precious metals have entered a parabolic rally, with spot gold hitting a 14-week high of $4,606.99 per ounce. Gold now accounts for 26.3% of top central-bank reserve assets, overtaking U.S. Treasuries (20.2%) for the first time since 1996, amid accelerating fears of U.S. debt debasement. Industrial metals remain volatile; copper surged toward record highs, driving Freeport-McMoRan to an all-time high and allowing BHP's copper revenue to overtake iron ore for the first time, though a historic LME supply squeeze eased late in the week following a 35,650-ton jump in on-warrant stocks.

Energy markets are facing intensifying upward pressure as Brent crude climbed to $94.39 per barrel. This price action is driven by a convergence of kinetic risks in the Middle East, Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, and a U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve that hit a 44-year low of 293.4 million barrels. Refined products are in crisis, with the U.S. diesel crack spread hitting a record $102.20. In Europe, power prices are spiking as historic droughts force nuclear output reductions in Hungary and Bulgaria due to low Danube River levels.

Agricultural commodities are experiencing a broad-based breakout led by supply-side crunches. Corn futures exceeded $5 per bushel for the first time in 18 months, and raw sugar hit a one-year high, prompting India to allow duty-free imports. Palm oil reached a 20-month high due to biofuel demand and El Niño risks, while cocoa harvests in Ghana are expected to plunge 13% to 16%. These shocks are compounded by a collapse in Ukrainian food exports, which are projected at 1.5 million metric tons, far below the 5 million ton target.

The energy transition is pivoting toward domestic mineral security and AI-integrated infrastructure. The U.S. government announced $500 million for critical minerals, while the DOE awarded grants for domestic lithium and cobalt projects. Simultaneously, the surge in AI data center power demand is triggering grid congestion and regulatory pushback in Pennsylvania, though the industry is responding by integrating AI tools for nuclear safety and pursuing private nuclear power sources.

Key variable to watch: Whether gold's displacement of U.S. Treasuries as the primary global reserve asset accelerates a structural re-rating of all monetary metals.

Last updated: August 15, 2026

Precious metals entered a consolidation phase near record highs after spot gold breached $4,400 per ounce, peaking at $4,448.83. This rally was underpinned by the People's Bank of China adding 20 tonnes of gold in July and continued retail ETF inflows. Industrial metals are increasingly bifurcated; copper hit record highs, breaching $14,000 per ton, driven by U.S. stockpiling and Chinese orders despite production downgrades from Codelco and Antofagasta. Tungsten prices surged up to 800% due to a supply squeeze impacting the defense and AI sectors.

Energy markets shifted from a demand-led decline to a geopolitical supply crisis, with Brent crude climbing toward $90 per barrel. Upward pressure is driven by Houthi strikes on Saudi Aramco's Berri Gas Plant and Jazan refinery, the failure to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and a U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve that fell below 300 million barrels for the first time since 1983. Volatility remains high as these risks are periodically offset by signals of potential Oman-Iran diplomatic breakthroughs and rising U.S. inventories.

Agricultural commodities are facing heightened volatility as Black Sea hostilities and European climate extremes threaten both current exports and the fall planting season. Wheat futures reached a one-week high due to port attacks, while extreme heat in Europe has stunted Austrian crops and pressured global food supplies. These shocks are partially countered by increased Malaysian palm oil production and systemic resilience to the "super" El Niño.

The energy transition is being hyper-accelerated by an AI-driven CapEx spree, with hyperscalers committing $2.6 trillion to infrastructure. This has triggered a strategic pivot toward small modular reactors (SMRs), with South Korea setting a 2035 commercialization target and X-Energy receiving $1 billion in U.S. public funding. However, operational vulnerabilities are acute; historic heatwaves and drought have forced nuclear reactor shutdowns in Romania and France, exposing the fragility of nuclear baseload power during climate extremes.

Key variable to watch: Whether the threat of an indefinite U.S. naval blockade of Iran sustains Brent prices above $85 despite fluctuating demand projections.

Last updated: August 08, 2026

Precious metals entered an explosive phase this week, with spot gold surging to $4,285.76 and silver climbing over 12% to $64.56. This rally is driven by a 21-month state buying streak in China, which saw reserves reach $306.35 billion in July, and over $1 billion in retail ETF inflows. In contrast, industrial metals are bifurcated; copper is trending toward record highs on strategic U.S. stockpiling ahead of potential tariffs, while iron ore hit a 13-month low, slipping below $100.

Energy markets experienced extreme volatility as a "peace rally" triggered by the cancellation of U.S. strikes on Iran—which saw Brent crash toward $79—quickly reversed. Prices rebounded above $83 by week's end due to renewed doubts regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and Russian attacks on gas production sites. Structural shifts are accelerating, evidenced by U.S. imports of Saudi crude falling to zero in July for the first time in 41 years and Saudi Aramco reporting a 33% jump in Q2 profit.

Agricultural commodities are facing a "perfect storm" of conflict and climate shocks, pushing the FAO Food Price Index to a three-year high of 131.1. Critical harvest failures are emerging, with Europe's sugar output projected at a 10-year low and UK cereal harvests forecasted to be the worst since 1984. These supply shocks are compounded by a projected decline in Ukrainian wheat exports from 17.6 million to 8.3 million tons and extreme cocoa price volatility.

The energy transition is pivoting toward AI-driven power demand, though operational reliability is faltering. While Oklo's SMR reached criticality and BofA raised its 2027 uranium forecast to $130/lb, climate-driven water shortages on the Danube forced a total shutdown of Hungary's Paks plant and required controlled explosions to cool Romania's Cernavoda plant. This operational fragility contrasts with aggressive capital deployment, including a $1 billion funding round for nuclear startup Valar.

Key variable to watch: Whether the volatility in the Strait of Hormuz sustains a structural floor for Brent above $80 despite unexpected U.S. inventory builds.

Last updated: August 01, 2026

Energy markets experienced extreme volatility as a brief military pause between the U.S. and Iran collapsed, triggering a sharp re-pricing of geopolitical risk. Brent crude futures plummeted over 7% to $89.58 and WTI dropped to $80.54 during the ceasefire, only to rebound quickly after Iranian strikes on a U.S. airbase in Jordan and subsequent U.S./Saudi strikes in Iraq. Supply vulnerabilities have intensified as Houthi ballistic missiles shut down Saudi Aramco's 400,000 bpd Jazan refinery and drone strikes hit Egypt's port of Damietta, forcing Saudi tankers to reroute around Africa.

Precious metals trended higher initially, with spot gold touching $4,103.67 and silver reaching $59.32 following the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady. This safe-haven demand was supported by aggressive gold accumulation in China and Hong Kong, alongside Ghana's 5 billion cedi allocation for reserves. However, prices corrected by the week's end, with gold falling to $4,024.69 as the initial surge receded. Industrial metals face a bifurcated outlook: Rio Tinto reported profit growth driven by AI-demand, but Chile reported its weakest second-quarter copper production since 2007 due to severe storms.

Agricultural commodities are under significant upward pressure from both conflict and climate shocks. Wheat futures rose following escalating Russia-Ukraine attacks, while U.S. corn conditions saw their sharpest deterioration in three years. Simultaneously, the strongest El Niño in over 75 years is expected to reduce Peru's blueberry harvest, and India is seeking alternative vegetable oils due to Black Sea disruptions. These supply shocks contrast with a pork glut in China and the resumption of U.S.-Mexico cattle imports, which boosted meatpacker shares for Tyson and JBS.

The energy transition is entering a high-capital phase, marked by a $100 billion NextEra-Brookfield project for AI data centers and China's approval of eight new nuclear reactors. However, operational reliability is faltering; record-low water levels in the Danube have forced shutdowns at nuclear plants in Romania and Hungary. While the U.S. sees a resurgence in coal plant bidding to meet AI power needs, the nuclear sector faces a $250 billion annual funding gap and growing local opposition to AI facilities.

Key variable to watch: Whether the expansion of conflict to Suez Canal shipping routes and continued Houthi strikes on Saudi infrastructure sustain a structural floor for oil prices above $90.

Last updated: July 25, 2026

Energy markets have entered a high-volatility regime as Brent crude breached $100 per barrel for the first time in two months. This spike is driven by kinetic escalation, including U.S. strikes on Iran's Bidboland Gas Refinery and Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, forcing Saudi Arabia to reroute exports via the Suez Canal. Structural vulnerabilities are acute, with the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve at its lowest level since 1983 and Europe facing a diesel squeeze marked by slumping stockpiles and record refining margins. While brief diplomatic hopes provided temporary price relief, Goldman Sachs warns that a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push Brent to $120.

Precious metals are trending higher, with spot gold reaching $4,155.87 and silver hitting $60.55 as investors hedge against Middle East volatility. Gold has officially overtaken U.S. Treasuries as the world's largest reserve asset for central banks, supported by China's June imports hitting a two-year high. However, gains are periodically capped by inflation risks stemming from the oil rally, which has increased expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes. Industrial metals remain mixed; Chile is targeting $100 billion in copper investments to meet AI data center demand, though a militant blockade recently targeted a Chinese-owned mine in Pakistan.

Agricultural commodities are rising sharply, with wheat hitting three-year highs due to Black Sea instability and extreme heatwaves in Europe and North Dakota. This climatic stress is extending to Asia, where dry spells are reducing rice yields while farmers struggle with higher fuel and fertilizer costs. Meanwhile, the energy transition is moving into a risk-on phase. The U.S. and Saudi Arabia finalized a landmark nuclear agreement allowing Riyadh to enrich uranium, and the U.S. is initiating a $200 million federal program to integrate nuclear power with AI data centers.

Key variable to watch: Whether Houthi and Iranian maritime disruptions sustain Brent crude above $100 and trigger a systemic global energy crisis.

Last updated: July 18, 2026

Energy markets have shifted from a bearish outlook to a sharp risk-premium environment as U.S.-Iran military hostilities intensified. Brent crude surged to $87.49 per barrel, while U.S. oil futures climbed above $80 following reports of a thwarted missile strike in Qatar and attacks in the Black Sea. Supply tightness is critical, with the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve hitting its lowest level since 1983 and Gulf Coast gasoline stocks at their lowest since 2017. These disruptions are offsetting a severe demand collapse in China, where June crude imports plunged 41% year-on-year to a decade low.

Precious metals experienced extreme volatility, with spot gold crashing below $4,000—wiping $1 trillion from gold and silver markets in one day—due to inflation fears and hawkish Federal Reserve comments. However, bullion recovered to $4,008.18, supported by structural central bank buying, including a 48-tonne purchase by China. Industrial metals remain fragmented; copper faced an 18.3% year-on-year production drop from Codelco in May and weather-related shipment delays in Chile, while iron ore prices declined on weakening Chinese demand and a major BHP strike in the Pilbara.

The energy transition is colliding with a massive infrastructure backlash as AI-driven power demand triggers state-level moratoriums. New York suspended the development of data centers over 50 megawatts, contributing to roughly $286 billion in project cancellations or delays between 2025 and Q1 2026. Despite this, capital is aggressively pivoting toward nuclear and fusion, with global fusion investment surging 69% to $4.5 billion. In agriculture, severe weather has reduced Australian wheat crop expectations by nearly 30%, while palm oil prices rose on biofuel demand linked to higher crude costs.

Key variable to watch: Whether the U.S. strategic pivot toward Iraq and the escalating kinetic activity in the Persian Gulf can sustain oil prices above $85 despite record-low Chinese import volumes.

Last updated: July 11, 2026

Energy markets experienced extreme volatility this week as a bearish outlook was abruptly interrupted by the collapse of the U.S.-Iran truce. After OPEC+ agreed to increase August production by 188,000 barrels per day and Saudi Arabia implemented a historic $11 per barrel cut for Asian Arab Light crude, prices trended toward a projected $60 floor. However, U.S. military strikes on Iran and IRGC attacks on commercial shipping in the Hormuz corridor caused Brent to surge toward $79 per barrel. This geopolitical spike was short-lived, as record UAE production of 4.1 million barrels per day and increased Hormuz transit flows pushed WTI back below $72.00 by week's end.

Precious and industrial metals are balancing structural growth against short-term volatility. Spot gold fluctuated between $4,022 and $4,176, supported by record central bank accumulation and the launch of a gold clearing system in Hong Kong, though it faced weekly losses as Middle East tensions reignited inflation and rate-hike fears. Industrial metals saw mixed results; iron ore trended higher due to supply constraints and a looming strike at BHP's Port Hedland terminal, while copper faced production declines from Chile's Codelco. Notably, soaring silver prices have pushed China's largest solar manufacturer to replace silver with copper in cell production.

The energy transition is shifting toward rapid commercialization and nuclear integration to meet AI-driven power demands. The U.S., Japan, and South Korea signed a trilateral pact for Small Modular Reactor (SMR) deployment, while the EU and UK integrated nuclear power into long-term fiscal frameworks. This trend is sparking significant financial activity, including a $3.5 billion debt raise by TeraWulf for a Kentucky data center campus and IPO filings from Holtec Nuclear Corporation and a Bezos-backed fusion startup. In agriculture, volatility remains high as coffee prices saw their largest jump since the dot-com era and cocoa reached a six-month high.

Key variable to watch: Whether the resurgence of U.S.-Iran hostilities sustains a geopolitical risk premium or if record UAE production and IEA's upwardly revised 2026 supply forecast drive prices back toward $60.

Last updated: July 04, 2026

Energy prices are under intensifying downward pressure as geopolitical risk premiums evaporate following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire in Doha. Brent crude experienced its largest quarterly price drop in six years, settling at $72.92 per barrel, while Citi forecasts a further decline to $60 by year-end. Supply is increasing as shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to over 10 million barrels per day, the UAE hit record June export levels of 3.7 million barrels per day, and Canada agreed to a new pipeline to export up to 1 million barrels daily to Asia.

Precious metals shifted from a steep quarterly decline to a strong rebound, with spot gold rising to $4,162.85 per ounce following less hawkish commentary from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Gold has now overtaken U.S. government bonds as the world's top reserve asset, supported by China's record May imports of 163 tonnes and the upcoming launch of a gold clearing system in Hong Kong. Industrial metals remain volatile; copper hit record highs above $14,000 per metric ton due to AI data center demand before retreating, while aluminum faces structural substitution risks as BMW and Ferrari switch from copper to aluminum.

The energy transition is characterized by a massive pivot toward nuclear and private equity-led renewables to support AI power demands. KKR is aggressively expanding its footprint, acquiring EDF’s North American renewable assets for $4.2 billion and launching a $1.3 billion joint venture in South Korea. While technical milestones were hit with three reactors achieving criticality and Valar Atomics powering an Nvidia chip, extreme heat caused nuclear output lows in France and Hungary. In agriculture, markets are split between bearish U.S. corn stockpiles and supply shocks, including a potential 20% decline in Ivory Coast cocoa production and a 30% drop in European corn yields due to heat.

Key variable to watch: Whether OPEC+ raises output quotas in its upcoming Sunday meeting and if this further accelerates the decline in Brent crude prices.

Last updated: June 29, 2026

Oil prices collapsed from previous levels, with Brent slipping below $75 and U.S. crude falling below $70 for the first time since March 1. This retreat to pre-war levels follows a U.S.–Iran interim peace deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with Persian Gulf crude exports recovering to at least 75% of pre-war levels. While the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has reached its lowest level since 1983 following a 285-million-barrel drawdown, increased Gulf flows and Saudi Arabia's resumption of loading at Ras Tanura have eased immediate supply fears.

Gold experienced high volatility, dipping below $4,000 per ounce as safe-haven demand waned, before rebounding to $4,039.89 following softer-than-expected U.S. PCE inflation data. Structural demand remains robust, evidenced by China's May gold imports reaching a two-year high of roughly 163 tonnes. However, short-term pressures persist as major Chinese banks tighten controls on retail precious-metal trading and the market reacts to hawkish Federal Reserve expectations.

Industrial metals and agricultural commodities face mixed headwinds. LME aluminum and copper inventories declined, yet Shanghai aluminum futures hit 2026 lows and tin fell over 3% on weak industrial demand. In agriculture, palm oil futures saw their largest one-month decline due to a strengthening ringgit and falling crude prices, while a "super El Niño" threat is prompting the creation of new commodities funds. Meanwhile, AI infrastructure spending is driving a nuclear renaissance, with the Trump administration offering $17.5 billion in loans for ten new Westinghouse reactors.

Key variable to watch: The stability of the U.S.–Iran peace deal and whether any renewed tensions trigger a return of the Hormuz risk premium to oil prices.

Last updated: June 28, 2026

Brent crude remains elevated above $90/bbl as the Hormuz risk premium persists despite partial de-escalation signals. OPEC+ held its production policy steady at this week's meeting, resisting pressure from non-Gulf members to raise output to offset geopolitical supply risk. The cartel's discipline is firmer than at any point since 2022, reflecting Saudi Arabia's fiscal break-even at $80 and the group's shared interest in price stability above $85.

Gold held near $3,050 this week, supported by a softening dollar, central bank buying from China and India, and continued safe-haven demand from the Hormuz situation. The structural central bank bid — which has been running at 1,000+ tonnes per year since 2022 — is the key underappreciated driver of gold's multi-year bull case. It has fundamentally changed the supply/demand balance independent of Western investor positioning.

Copper is the most interesting commodity this week: LME inventories fell to multi-month lows as Chinese grid infrastructure demand accelerated and new mine supply from Chile underperformed guidance. The copper supply gap thesis — driven by EV adoption, grid buildout, and data centre construction — is playing out on a slower timeline than bulls projected in 2022–23, but the structural case remains intact. Key variable: whether China's July stimulus announcements include meaningful infrastructure acceleration, which would be a sharp copper catalyst.