Israel–Gaza Conflict

Last updated: June 28, 2026

A landmark framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon was signed this week, with the US acting as guarantor. The deal establishes a ceasefire line and phased Hezbollah withdrawal from the border zone. However, the agreement faces fierce internal opposition from Hezbollah hardliners and Iranian-aligned factions who view it as a concession extracted under military pressure. Implementation remains uncertain — Lebanon's government lacks the capacity to enforce withdrawal without international monitoring.

In Gaza, fighting continues in the southern Rafah corridor as Israeli forces complete clearance operations. Humanitarian access remains severely restricted despite US pressure for corridors to be opened. The civilian death toll and infrastructure destruction have become significant sources of friction between Washington and Tel Aviv, with the Biden-era diplomatic tensions largely persisting under the current US posture.

The regional picture is complex: Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping have decreased marginally following US and UK naval operations, but have not stopped. The key variable is whether the Lebanon framework holds through its first 30-day review period — a collapse there would likely reignite the northern front and redraw the entire regional calculus.