Daily Brief Wednesday, June 13 2026

President Trump canceled scheduled military strikes against Iran this evening.

---

Geopolitics

Iran / Hormuz

• The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that understandings have been reached on a large part of issues in talks and the country is in the final stage of internal conclusions.
• At least $10 billion will be unlocked under the proposed deal, with the first $3 billion tranche already sent.

Current situation: Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi has indicated that an interim agreement includes a ceasefire in Lebanon and the reopening of Hormuz. However, he also noted that changes are possible before signing the memorandum of understanding, which is yet to be finalized.

Israel / Lebanon / Hezbollah

• The Lebanese President warned against sectarian frivolity or regional tug-of-war.
• Israeli raids were conducted on towns in southern Lebanon, including Kafr Huna and Armata.
• Israeli forces targeted Hezbollah-affiliated headquarters and buildings in Beirut's southern suburbs, continuing the ongoing military actions between Israel and Hezbollah-aligned groups.

Current situation: Tensions remain high as both sides continue to engage in military actions. The Lebanese Foreign Minister denied the inclusion of a ceasefire in Lebanon within any US-Iran agreement, emphasizing the need to separate the Lebanese file from the Iranian one.

Russia / Ukraine

• A media investigation has identified over 225,000 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine.

Current situation: The ongoing conflict continues with significant casualties reported on both sides.

China / Taiwan

• The Chinese Commerce Ministry strongly opposes the U.S. decision to designate additional Chinese firms as "military companies."
• China warns of strong retaliation if the U.S. fails to treat its technology companies fairly.

Current situation: Tensions between China and the U.S. have escalated, with Beijing expressing concerns over recent U.S. actions against Chinese firms and threatening retaliatory measures.

US Politics / Trump

• President Trump announced that U.S. forces eliminated Tren de Aragua leader Ni o Guerrero in a coordinated operation with Venezuelan authorities.
• Trump stated he expects to finalize an Iran deal within days, indicating close coordination with allies like Qatar during the America 250 celebrations.

Current situation: President Trump is actively engaging in military and diplomatic actions, including strikes against criminal organizations and negotiations for peace deals. He also plans significant bilateral meetings at the G7 summit involving Middle Eastern leaders and Ukraine's Zelenskiy.

---

Macroeconomics

Gold / Metals / Commodities

• China’s gold reserves increased to 9% of total holdings, marking the largest increase since December 2024.

Current situation: The trend continues with a significant rise in Chinese gold reserves.

US Fiscal / Debt / Credit

• The U.S. debt burden has surpassed its entire annual economic output, with America's debt-to-GDP ratio crossing 100%, reaching levels last seen during World War I.

Current situation: The U.S. is grappling with a historically high debt-to-GDP ratio, highlighting fiscal challenges and concerns over long-term sustainability.

---

Markets

US Indices

• AMD's CFO stated that securing additional hyperscale and AI-native customer wins remains a priority.
• Google has made over $110 billion from its investment in SpaceX.

Current situation: The NASDAQ 100 is down by 2% today, reflecting broader market declines. The S&P 500 unofficially dropped 1.48%, closing at 7,277.02 points, while the NASDAQ fell 1.84%, ending at 25,206.81.

AI Chips / Semiconductors

• There is growing momentum for price increases across the global MCU market following ST's announcement of a late-June hike.

Current situation: The mature node supply in the semiconductor industry is tightening, leading to further price hikes by MCU makers.

Big Tech

• Six American companies are now valued at over $2 trillion: Nvidia, Google, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and SpaceX.
• Microsoft has reportedly considered spinning out its Xbox gaming division.

Current situation: Meta plans to restrict employee use of AI tokens due to rising costs. Additionally, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are projected to earn over $100 million each from a potential SpaceX IPO.

Defense / Aerospace

• Republican frustration is growing due to President Trump's prolonged strategy against Iran.
• Under-25 hiring has plunged by 45%, impacting young workers significantly.

Current situation: The ongoing conflict with Iran continues to strain internal divisions within the GOP, as they express increasing dissatisfaction with the extended confrontation.

Bonds / Yields

• Japanese government bond (JGB) futures have fallen, mirroring declines in the U.S. Treasury market.
• The 30-year JGB yield has risen by 1.5 basis points to reach 3.865%.

Current situation: The trend of declining yields in major markets is affecting JGBs as well, with the 30-year bond seeing a slight increase in yield due to broader market dynamics.

---

Crypto

Whale Movements

• Tom Lee's Bitmine bought another 25,000 ETH ($41.09 million) from BitGo in the past three days.

Current situation: Over the last few days, Bitmine has been actively purchasing Ethereum, accumulating a total of 125,000 ETH worth $206 million.

Crypto Regulatory / Institutional

• Canada introduces new legislation to regulate AI content and combat bot-driven misinformation on social media.
• The SIREN whale is selling off large amounts of SIREN tokens, receiving over 7.5M USDT from sales so far while still holding 595.7M SIREN ($91.86 million).

Current situation: Regulatory efforts are intensifying in Canada to address the proliferation of AI-generated content and misinformation on social media platforms. Additionally, significant whale activity continues in the crypto market, with major sell-offs impacting token prices.

---