JUN 25, 2026 · K2 CAPITAL MANAGEMENT · 26 MIN READ

Daily Brief — June 25, 2026

WTI crude futures fell below $70 per barrel as 72 ships carrying about 20 million barrels exited the Strait of Hormuz.

WTI crude futures fell below $70 per barrel as 72 ships carrying about 20 million barrels exited the Strait of Hormuz.

Geopolitics

Iran / Hormuz

WTI crude futures fell below $70 per barrel as supply concerns eased with more oil tankers exiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran exported 40 million barrels of oil since 15 June, according to tanker‑tracker data.
U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Wright said roughly 72 ships carrying about 20 million barrels of oil have left the strait in the past 24 hours.
Wright indicated that a return to normal oil flows is delayed because Iranian mines remain in the strait.
Wright asserted that Iran will not have the capability to block the Strait of Hormuz in the future.
Wright added that the United States will ensure oil flows through Hormuz even without a deal with Iran.
Iran moved US$3.84 billion through the cryptocurrency exchange CoinEx to evade U.S. sanctions.
Insurers have slashed war premiums for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, per the Financial Times.
The IRGC Navy called the U.S.-backed Omani southern corridor “unacceptable and completely dangerous.”
The IRGC stated that only the crossing route announced by Iran is permitted and warned that ships using unapproved routes face extreme danger.
Maersk reported having three vessels remaining in the Gulf and plans to pursue an additional transit through the strait.
Bahrain’s foreign minister welcomed Oman’s announcement of a safe‑passage corridor for ships through the strait.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the Strait of Hormuz is an international waterway and that tolling would set an unacceptable precedent.
Rubio emphasized that any agreement on the strait must consider the interests of U.S. allies.
Between 23 June and 25 June, 57 ships sailed through the strait under a United Nations evacuation scheme.

Current situation: Iran has halted issuance of new Strait of Hormuz permits, limiting passage to existing holders, while the United States and regional partners press for open, multilateral navigation despite Iranian threats and mine concerns.

Israel / Lebanon / Hezbollah

An independent U.N. commission concluded that the Israeli military deliberately targeted children in Gaza, constituting genocide.
Israel withdrew from part of its buffer zone in southern Lebanon, a move described by a U.S. State Department official as an act of “good faith.”
The U.S. State Department official said Lebanese armed forces should move into the area vacated by Israel.
Iran’s Quds Force chief warned that if Israel does not voluntarily withdraw from southern Lebanon today, it will be forced to flee defeated tomorrow.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the United States is now monitoring Israel‑Lebanon incidents.
Rubio indicated that the United States is close to an initial agreement between Israel and Lebanon.

Russia / Ukraine

Reporting noted that preserving the façade of normality in Crimea is becoming increasingly difficult as the peninsula turns into a war zone.
An opinion piece observed that Moscow’s war in Ukraine is increasingly being funded by quietly invoicing the Russian population.
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev called for an international legal mechanism to ban Western military bases abroad.
Russian state news TASS reported that drone debris sparked a fire at a fuel depot in Russia’s Krasnodar region.
The Wall Street Journal highlighted that Ukraine’s most potent weapon is the soldiers who refuse to quit.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine will carry out preemptive attacks on facilities Russia uses for its war, expanding strikes on energy infrastructure.
An industrial facility in Poltava was damaged after a drone strike, with Ukrainian authorities reporting the fire was extinguished.
Russian defence ministry reported intercepting 269 drones overnight.
Ukraine announced preemptive attacks on Russian war‑use facilities, reiterating Zelensky’s statement.
An EU commissioner claimed Ukraine is gaining the upper hand on the battlefield, in the air and at sea.
President Zelensky said Ukrainian forces hit an oil depot in Russia’s Krasnodar region and two oil refineries in the Ufa region.
A swarm of drones struck the Russian city of Ufa, home to three oil refineries.
The Wall Street Journal reported that thousands who joined Ukraine’s military early in the war remain on the front lines despite heavy casualties.
EU officials praised Ukraine’s progress in resisting Russia’s invasion as the bloc began disbursing aid from its €90 billion loan and signalled further investment.
Analysts warned that the Russia‑Ukraine war, China’s rare‑earth controls and Iran turmoil could hurt the $280 billion cancer‑treatment market.

China / Taiwan

Taiwan will inaugurate its first nonstop flight to Washington, a symbolic move amid heightened political tensions.
The United States says China is attempting to discourage states and businesses from engaging with Taiwan.
Western allies expressed alarm over Chinese Coast Guard activity, a response welcomed by Taiwan.
China’s foreign ministry defended recent patrols off Taiwan’s east coast and urged critics to stop mischaracterising facts.
Taiwan conducted a tabletop drill simulating a response to a Chinese maritime blockade.
Heavy rains from a nearby typhoon forced the evacuation of about 200 people on Taiwan’s east coast.

US Politics / Trump

President Trump asserted that his poll numbers have reached an all‑time high.
He cancelled a housing news conference and bill‑signing ceremony, saying the event will stay on hold until Congress passes the SAVE America Act.
Trump announced he will not sign the bipartisan housing bill, which contains a CBDC ban, until the SAVE America Act is enacted.
He claimed Iran is agreeing to everything the United States wants.
Trump asked Congress for $88 billion to fund the war in Iran and other priority programs.
The president demanded loyalty from NATO allies and criticised their lack of support in the Iran conflict.
He warned that the United States will experience an unprecedented economic boom.
Trump ordered U.S. agencies to prepare a swift response to the situation in Venezuela.
He said it may never be known who was responsible for the strike on a girls’ school in Iran.
The administration sought an additional $11 billion in farm aid.

Current situation: Trump continues to press for large congressional appropriations while using economic rhetoric and anti‑big‑oil investigations to rally his base, echoing earlier statements that stock buybacks “fake” price gains and that the Department of Justice should probe oil companies for price manipulation.

NATO / Europe

NATO Secretary‑General Mark Rutte met President Donald Trump at the White House, using praise and gentle pushback to ease tensions over allies’ reluctance to support U.S. initiatives.
Trump told reporters he would have skipped the upcoming NATO summit in Ankara if not for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s invitation.
Analysts note that Chinese dominance over critical materials is undermining European rearmament efforts.

BRICS / Global South

India’s market shows a surge in leveraged stock bets, a shrinking share of IT firms in the Nifty 50, and speculation that the RBI will hold rates steady in August.
Kazakhstan’s Almaty International Airport is seeking a loan of up to $670 million to refinance debt and fund infrastructure upgrades.
Iran’s oil minister and his Indian counterpart discussed energy cooperation and the development of the Chabahar port during a BRICS energy meeting.

Other Geopolitics

Germany cancelled its €15.2 billion F126 frigate programme and will instead acquire up to eight lower‑cost MEKO A‑200 warships.
The United States declined to send senior officials to the APEC summit in Macau, accusing China of discriminatory visa restrictions.
The U.S. State Department coordinated assistance with Venezuela after a series of powerful earthquakes, planning search‑and‑rescue and medical aid shipments.
All U.S. embassy staff in Caracas were confirmed safe following the seismic events.
Venezuela declared a state of emergency after consecutive major quakes devastated Caracas and its main airport.
Hong Kong police arrested two booksellers on suspicion of selling seditious publications under the national security law.
Australia’s intelligence chief warned that the country’s security environment is deteriorating.

Current situation: Recent remarks from the U.S. Federal Reserve and observations by senior investors highlight a shifting Asian landscape, while the United States remains focused on countering China’s growing influence and managing regional security challenges.

Macroeconomics

Fed / US Monetary Policy

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he is confident that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will optimize the path for both inflation and economic growth.
Bessent told CNBC he hopes the Fed keeps an open mind on inflation after the Iran‑related energy price increases reverse.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to testify before the House Financial Services Committee on July 14, his first appearance as Fed chair.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Cook delivered welcome remarks at the State of Small Business Symposium hosted by the Cleveland Fed.
The Federal Reserve Board’s annual bank stress test showed that large banks this year have sufficient capital to continue lending to households and businesses.
Data from the San Francisco Fed indicate that last week’s FOMC meeting produced the largest hawkish surprise on record.
The Fed’s balance sheet increased by $11 billion in the week ending June 17, bringing total assets to $6.74 trillion, the highest level since March 2025, and has risen $162.8 billion since the start of the year.
An analyst suggested that the Trump White House may have given Warsh the green light to raise interest rates.
The Fed found that total equity capital would fall by 1.6 percentage points under extreme “doomsday” scenarios, the smallest decline in at least seven years.

Current situation: New Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh is preparing for his first congressional testimony on July 14 amid discussions of inflation outlook and potential rate hikes, while the Fed’s balance sheet continues to expand.

ECB / European Monetary Policy

ECB Vice‑President Isabel Schnabel said that, from today’s perspective, further interest‑rate hikes will be needed to bring inflation back to the 2 percent target over the medium term.
Schnabel added that the short‑term situation looks better than expected and that the ceasefire does not allow policymakers to let their guard down.
A sharp drop in oil prices following progress in Middle‑East peace talks has led some economists to scale back expectations for additional ECB rate increases.
ECB Governor Francis Moulin remarked that recent developments are good for the French economy, that the June rate hike was moderate, and that the ECB remains determined to control inflation.

Current situation: ECB officials are signaling readiness for additional tightening, even as external developments such as lower oil prices and a Middle‑East ceasefire influence expectations; meanwhile, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is slated to speak at the ECB’s Sintra symposium on July 1, underscoring trans‑Atlantic policy coordination.

BOJ / Japan

Bank of Japan board member Naoki Tamura said the BOJ needs to raise rates every few months and should accelerate the pace in response to rising inflationary pressures.
The Japanese government will urge the BOJ to support private demand, according to a draft economic blueprint.
Tamura stated that Japan has reached its 2 percent inflation target but warned of a risk of overshooting inflation.
He explained that reaching a neutral rate requires careful monitoring of economic, price, and financial responses to tightening.
Tamura signaled that faster tightening could be needed if inflation exceeds expectations.
He noted that the pace of rate hikes could vary based on how the economy and markets react.
Tamura said policy timing will depend on wholesale inflation, services prices, and inflation expectations.
He declined to comment on fiscal policy but said its impact will be factored into the BOJ’s price‑stability assessment.
Tamura asserted that the BOJ is not currently forced into rapid tightening to combat an inflation surge.
He added that the BOJ could accelerate or enlarge rate hikes if inflation risks build, though he sees no immediate need.

US Economic Data

Forecasters expect the core PCE price index to increase 3.4 percent year‑over‑year in May, creating a wide wedge with the CPI.
MarketWatch warned that hidden PCE drivers could force a Fed rate hike and shock markets.
The Wall Street Journal reported that the United States’ massive artificial‑intelligence build‑out is beginning to raise prices on items ranging from smartphones to electricity.
Upcoming data releases include the PCE price index, initial jobless claims, and GDP, scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET.
The economic calendar highlights PCE inflation as the main event, with a packed undercard.
Initial jobless claims fell to 215 k for the week ending June 20, better than the prior 226 k and the forecast of 225 k.
Continuing claims rose to 1.821 million, above the prior 1.810 million and the forecast of 1.802 million.
U.S. GDP grew at an annualised 2.1 percent in the first quarter, revised up from the preliminary 1.6 percent estimate.
May personal spending declined 0.7 percent month‑over‑month, contrary to an expected increase of 0.6 percent.
The May PCE price index rose 0.4 percent month‑over‑month, versus an expected 0.5 percent.
The May PCE price index increased 4.1 percent year‑over‑year, matching expectations.
The May core PCE price index rose 0.3 percent month‑over‑month, meeting the forecast.
The May core PCE price index rose 3.4 percent year‑over‑year, also matching expectations.
Core PCE month‑over‑month rose 0.3 percent, up from 0.2 percent in the prior month.
Personal income grew 0.7 percent month‑over‑month, ahead of the 0.4 percent estimate.
Durable goods orders fell 4.5 percent month‑over‑month, better than the forecasted -5.0 percent decline.
Durable goods orders excluding transportation rose 1.3 percent month‑over‑month, surpassing the 0.6 percent forecast.
Capital‑goods new orders (non‑defense, excluding aircraft) increased 1.6 percent month‑over‑month, exceeding the 0.6 percent estimate.
Real personal spending rose 0.3 percent month‑over‑month, above the 0.2 percent forecast.

European Economic Data

Germany’s GfK consumer confidence fell to –29.2 in July, missing the –28.0 estimate and improving from –29.8 previously.
France’s consumer confidence rose to 84 in May, above the forecast of 83 and up from 82 in April.
Spain’s first‑quarter GDP grew 0.6 % quarter‑on‑quarter and 2.7 % year‑on‑year, matching expectations.
Spain’s producer‑price index increased 1.0 % month‑on‑month in May, down from 1.7 % previously, while the annual rate rose to 10.5 % from 8.3 %.
Italy’s industrial sales rose 0.3 % month‑on‑month in April, lagging the 2.0 % gain in the prior month, and the year‑on‑year index fell to 3.2 % from 4.4 %.
The UK’s CBI reported retail sales fell by 54 points in June, deeper than the prior 46‑point decline, and total distribution sales dropped 33 points.

Current situation: The EU continues to run a current‑account surplus, a structural feature that persists despite mixed consumer confidence and modest growth signals.

China / EM Economic Data

China’s central bank introduced an overnight tenor into its open‑market operations, aiming to reshape short‑term borrowing‑cost management.
A series of six charts highlighted ongoing changes within China’s economy, detailing recent policy and market shifts.

Oil / Energy Markets

U.S. crude oil futures fell below $70 per barrel for the first time since March 1.
Brent crude slipped below $75 per barrel, the lowest level since the start of the Iran‑Russia war.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that Cushing crude inventories dropped to 19 million barrels, the lowest level since 2014.
Chinese refiners cut crude runs to their lowest volume since 2017 as Asian purchases of Middle‑East oil slowed.
U.S. crude futures fell to $69.24 a barrel as increased Middle‑Eastern supply added downward pressure.
Brent prices erased all gains made since the Iran war began, returning to pre‑war levels.
Saudi Arabia prepared to restart Ras Tanura oil exports as Gulf flows rose.
Iraq warned it may consider leaving OPEC if its production quota is not significantly increased.

Current situation: Oil prices have retreated to pre‑war levels, with Brent under $75 and U.S. crude below $72, as increased Gulf flows and declining inventories ease supply concerns.

Gold / Metals / Commodities

Spot gold slipped nearly 1 % to $3,962.11 per ounce as investors reduced safe‑haven demand.
Shanghai’s most active tin futures contract fell more than 3 % amid weakened industrial demand.
Shanghai’s aluminium futures dropped 3.13 % to 22,730 yuan per metric ton, the lowest since 2026.
Shanghai’s copper futures saw a modest rise after touching a seven‑week low, supported by a weaker dollar and an AI‑related stock rally.
Guangzhou Futures Exchange is considering launching China’s first cobalt futures contract.
Zhejiang Hailiang, a Chinese copper producer, indicated confidence that U.S. tariffs on refined copper would not deter its American customers.
Major Chinese banks announced tightened controls on retail precious‑metal trading services.
Gold, silver and bitcoin experienced heightened volatility, with market criticism directed at former regulator Kevin Warsh.

Current situation: Precious metals have descended sharply, with gold below $4,000 and silver under $60, reflecting diminished safe‑haven demand and tighter retail trading in China.

Agricultural Commodities

Palm oil futures posted their biggest one‑month decline, pressured by falling crude and soy‑oil prices and a strengthening ringgit that reduced demand.

USD / FX / Currencies

The Indonesian rupiah fell to 17,950 per U.S. dollar in early trading.
Thailand’s baht and other Asian currencies came under pressure against the dollar amid expectations of sustained higher U.S. rates.
The British pound held above 1.3150 as investors awaited U.S. PCE inflation data.
The Singapore dollar consolidated ahead of major U.S. economic releases.
The Australian dollar remained subdued following domestic labor data.
The Hong Kong dollar moved toward the weak end of its fixed range as low volatility and cheap borrowing made short positions easier.
The Bank of Japan’s Tamura emphasized that currency movements should reflect underlying economic fundamentals and multiple factors beyond policy.
The U.S. dollar rose to a near two‑year high of about 161.95 yen, the strongest level since early 2024.

Current situation: The dollar is near two‑year highs versus the yen, while Asian currencies face pressure from “higher‑for‑longer” U.S. rates, prompting central‑bank commentary on exchange‑rate impacts.

US Fiscal / Debt / Credit

An FT opinion piece noted that fiscal discipline has eroded, with budgetary processes and parliamentary checks being set aside.
The Economist highlighted that the low U.S. saving rate may have benign explanations despite appearing to signal cash shortages for households.
Foreign investors added $2 trillion to U.S. equities in April, raising total holdings to a record $23.2 trillion.
SNAP benefits enrollment fell by roughly half a million in Arizona between March 2025 and March 2026, a 50 % decline.
The top 20 % of U.S. earners now account for about 58 % of personal spending, the highest share on record.
Discussions surfaced about the United States potentially raising the retirement age, mirroring Germany.
The White House requested $1 billion from Congress to augment pensions for former GM parts supplier Delphi workers cut in the 2009 bankruptcy.
Ares’ flagship private‑credit fund imposed a 5 % redemption cap after facing 14 % withdrawal requests.

Current situation: Fiscal discipline is weakening, foreign ownership of U.S. stocks has hit record levels, and widening wealth inequality is evident, while pension support measures and private‑credit fund stresses add to fiscal pressures.

Markets

US Indices

The Dow Jones rose 1.00% while U.S. stocks broadly extended gains.
JPMorgan upgraded its S&P 500 year‑end target to 7,800, citing strong earnings upgrades from AI investment and easing geopolitical tensions.
Societe Generale lifted its 2026 S&P 500 target to 8,000, and Citi projected an 8,100 target for the same year.
Nasdaq‑100 futures were up 2% in after‑hours trading, and futures indicated a 0.6% gain for the S&P 500 and a 2% rise for the Nasdaq 100.

Current situation: A trillion‑dollar erosion in market value was recorded earlier in the week, while leveraged Nasdaq‑100 ETFs have approached a $40 billion AUM near record highs, underscoring heightened volatility despite recent bullish target revisions.

European / Asian Indices

JPMorgan raised its bullish case for South Korea’s KOSPI to a target of 15,000 points, with base‑case and bear‑case targets set at 12,500 and 8,000 points respectively.
Asian markets rallied after Micron’s earnings eased AI‑related concerns.
Japan’s Nikkei advanced nearly 5% on broad market strength.
Eurostoxx 50 futures gained 0.3%, the DAX rose 0.2%, while FTSE futures slipped 0.2%.
South Korea’s KOSPI jumped 5.8% on strong broad‑based gains.

Current situation: The KOSPI previously suffered a 10% crash, followed by a 4% overnight rebound, indicating a volatile recovery trend in the region.

AI Chips / Semiconductors

OpenAI and Broadcom announced a new chip named “Jalapeño,” claimed to outperform existing leading models.
Qualcomm unveiled its first data‑center CPU, the Dragonfly C1000, with Meta identified as the launch customer.
Micron reported quarterly revenue of $41.5 billion, beating expectations, posted an adjusted EPS of $25.11, and forecast Q4 revenue of $50 billion with an 86% gross margin.
Following the earnings release, Micron’s stock surged 14‑15% in after‑hours trading and added roughly $120 billion in market capitalization.
Qualcomm’s stock rallied as the company projected annual data‑center chip revenue of $15 billion by 2029.

Current situation: Nvidia recently introduced a warm‑water cooling system aimed at eliminating water use in data centers, while Korean semiconductor firms face policy pressure to share AI benefits; Samsung allocated half of its HBM capacity to HBM4, and SK Hynix prepared a large ADR issuance and Nasdaq listing.

Big Tech

Oracle’s ties to former President Trump were reported to have bolstered its business and the media ventures of the founder’s son.
Alibaba’s shares fell to a 16‑month low in Hong Kong after Anthropic accused the Chinese firm of illicitly accessing its AI model.
Meta accelerated plans to use large language models for content and ad review, aiming to replace human moderation with AI.
Amazon pledged an additional $13 billion to its India investments to speed up AI and cloud infrastructure buildout.
Microsoft’s Azure and Amazon Web Services face stringent EU regulation under the Digital Markets Act, with EU authorities designating them as “gatekeepers.”

Current situation: Recent statements from Microsoft’s CEO criticize AI‑driven job cuts; Mark Zuckerberg has ordered Meta to develop a prediction‑markets app; Google is set to join the Dow Jones Industrial Average, replacing Verizon; and Apple plans mass production of its first foldable iPhone in July.

AI Companies

Nasdaq’s EVP and CFO announced an “AI‑first” transformation for the finance division, requiring staff to earn AI proficiency belts.
SoftBank’s founder Masayoshi Son warned that calling AI a bubble is “blasphemy” and described SoftBank as the “factory that lays the eggs” for AI innovation.
Anthropic publicly accused Alibaba of illicitly extracting its Claude model, labeling the incident the largest known attack of its kind.
Investors are awaiting potential gains from the upcoming SpaceX IPO and strategic moves by OpenAI and Anthropic.

Current situation: Industry observers note heightened scrutiny of AI model security after Anthropic’s allegations against Alibaba, while discussions continue on how EDA firms might respond to OpenAI’s potential external solution offerings.

Defense / Aerospace

Lockheed Martin received a $35.3 billion contract from the U.S. Missile Defense Agency to produce Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors.
Rocket Lab and Lockheed Martin are part of a partnership supporting SpaceX’s military space‑laser project.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin indicated that a review is under way to determine how Turkey could acquire F‑35 fighter jets.
Nations from the United States to China are accelerating development of sea‑borne drones, reshaping warfare across the Indo‑Pacific’s vast waters.
Anduril Industries is in talks to acquire Nissan’s Oppama assembly plant near Tokyo to build autonomous military drones in Japan.

Current situation: Recent SpaceX Falcon 9 launches, including the Starfall Demo mission, demonstrate continued U.S. commercial launch activity and expanding microgravity research capabilities, providing a backdrop of active space operations.

Financials / Banks

JPMorgan raised its quarterly dividend to $1.65 per share, up from $1.50, and launched a $50 billion share‑buyback program.
Major U.S. lenders, including JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America, passed the Federal Reserve’s annual stress tests despite criticism over transparency.
The Financial Times reported that U.S. banks could lose $700 billion in an economic crash according to Fed stress‑test scenarios.
JPMorgan boosted its bullish target for South Korea’s KOSPI to 15,000 points.
Citi lifted its price target for Qualcomm to $198 from $160 and for Micron to $1,400 from $1,200.

Earnings / Corporate

Bain Capital announced plans to acquire a controlling stake in Volkswagen’s marine‑engine unit.
Comcast‑owned Sky reached an agreement to purchase ITV’s broadcast unit.
H.B. Fuller is nearing a deal to acquire AMS for approximately $827 million.
India is expected to approve a roughly $370 million investment from a hybrid‑engine venture backed by China’s Geely.
EasyJet rejected a fourth sweetened offer from Castlelake in a continued takeover overture.
McCormick reported second‑quarter adjusted earnings per share of $0.80 versus an estimated $0.69, with net sales of $1.94 billion, and reaffirmed its full‑year outlook.

Nuclear / Energy Transition

The Wall Street Journal highlighted the challenge of finding a permanent repository for the world’s largest stockpile of nuclear waste, which currently resides in temporary storage amid safety concerns.
Studsvik’s chief executive said Rolls‑Royce is among five candidates shortlisted to partner on a new reactor project in Sweden.
The United States, Russia and China are increasingly integrating artificial intelligence into their nuclear command, control and early‑warning systems, according to the Arms Control Association.

Current situation: The Trump administration has offered $17.5 billion in low‑cost loans to finance the construction of ten new Westinghouse AP1000 reactors, underscoring strong policy support for a nuclear renaissance.

Bonds / Yields

Japan purchased ¥199.7 billion of foreign bonds, down from ¥382.6 billion the previous day, while buying ¥426.8 billion of foreign equities.
Foreign investors sold ¥1,057.3 billion of Japanese government bonds, an increase from the prior ¥531.0 billion outflow.
U.S. investment‑grade bond sales set a new June record, propelled by issuance from Nvidia and SpaceX.
The 10‑year Japanese government bond yield fell to 2.625 %, a decline of four basis points.
Japan’s 20‑year JGB yield slipped 1.5 basis points to 3.55 % and the 30‑year yield edged up 1 basis point to 3.875 % before later falling to 3.835 %.
Bond strategists warned that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s $2.3 trillion investment plan could add fresh pressure to Japan’s government‑bond market.
Hungary’s bond yields have risen sharply, approaching levels seen in the United Kingdom, reflecting strong investor support for the new government’s agenda.
Returns on U.K. government bonds rose to a three‑month high as lower oil prices offset concerns over political volatility.

Crypto

Bitcoin

U.S. Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $6.4 billion over the past 30 days, the largest 30‑day outflow on record.
Weekly withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs totalled $233 million.
Declining Bitcoin prices are tightening financial pressure on MicroStrategy, shrinking its cash reserves while dividend obligations rise.
Treasury‑focused Bitcoin companies have lost the share‑price premium that previously funded crypto purchases; MicroStrategy’s mNAV fell to 1.09× and Metaplanet’s stock dropped 47%.
21Shares projects Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by year‑end.
Bitcoin slipped below $60,000, marking a roughly 20% decline for the month and a 35% drop year‑to‑date.

Current situation: Record ETF outflows, mounting options‑expiry pressure and fading institutional demand have pushed Bitcoin into a steep downtrend, even as some firms continue to use it for fee savings.

Ethereum

Ethereum reduced its workforce by 54 employees, representing one‑fifth of its staff, and cut its operating budget by 40%.
The network is establishing a new foundation that has received formal approval from Wall Street investors.

HYPE / Hyperliquid

Arthur Hayes advised that crypto protocols should emulate Hyperliquid, highlighting its lack of venture‑capital funding, broad airdrop, and practice of returning revenue to token holders.

Altcoins / DeFi

Standard Chartered said tokenized assets entering DeFi could help Aave regain lost lending market share.
StarkWare introduced Private KYC on Starknet, allowing users to verify attributes such as age via zero‑knowledge proofs.
DefiLlama upgraded token pages to display comprehensive metrics—including market cap, fully diluted valuation, open interest—and added risk assessments.
DWF Labs reported that more than $31 billion of real‑world assets are on‑chain, yet under 10% is active in DeFi, with most capital idle in wallets.
Standard Chartered forecasted AAVE could reach $3,500 by 2030 after recovering assets lost in the April Kelp DAO exploit.
A large decentralized compute network now runs entirely on over 265,000 user phones, requiring no new data centers.

Crypto Regulatory / Institutional

SBI Group launched JPYSC, Japan’s first yen‑stablecoin backed by a trust bank.
The U.S. CFTC sued Kentucky, its ninth state target, following Kentucky’s lawsuit against Kalshi and Polymarket for alleged illegal gambling operations.
Kalshi is in talks to raise funding at a $40 billion valuation, according to the Financial Times.
South Korea’s Financial Services Commission incorporated token securities into a sweeping capital‑market modernization plan, adding faster settlement and extended trading hours.
Kalshi filed a lawsuit against Illinois and Governor JB Pritzker, arguing that a new state licensing requirement is preempted by federal law.
Payward, Kraken’s parent company, led a $20 million Series A investment in Onyx Odds, a sports‑prediction market app planning to integrate crypto trading.
South Korea’s crypto delegation met with the SEC’s crypto task force to discuss stablecoins, tokenized securities, and cross‑border regulations.
Wintermute warned that a Federal Reserve stance toward tighter monetary policy discourages crypto liquidity.
Stablecore, Circuit and Curql launched a stablecoin pilot for U.S. credit unions, providing testing access to institutions holding $25 billion in combined assets.
Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin received official approval for use in Japan.
Kalshi’s CEO confirmed the firm is considering an IPO but will not occur in 2026.

Current situation: Regulatory scrutiny is intensifying globally, with the U.S. advancing the Crypto Clarity Act and CBDC restrictions, while Asian markets push forward with stablecoin launches and token‑security reforms.

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