JUL 24, 2026 · K2 CAPITAL MANAGEMENT · 21 MIN READ

Daily Brief — July 24, 2026

U.S. oil prices surged above $88 per barrel, marking a 31% increase since July 2.

U.S. oil prices surged above $88 per barrel, marking a 31% increase since July 2.

Geopolitics

Iran / Hormuz↑ Escalating● Changed

U.S. forces completed their 12th consecutive night of strikes against Iranian military targets, specifically hitting coastal surveillance sites and air defense infrastructure.
The U.S. military deployed a B-1 long-range bomber to strike Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets for the first time since fighting resumed 12 days ago.
An oil tanker caught fire following an explosion in the southern Strait of Hormuz after attempting to transit a mined route; two other tankers turned back.
President Trump threatened to destroy Iranian power plants and bridges.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed to have destroyed a Patriot system and THAAD radar in Jordan, and the Iranian army reported strikes on U.S. bases in Kuwait, including Camp Doha and Camp Arifjan.
Iran-backed Houthis attacked two Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea, with Saudi officials confirming one vessel is ablaze.
House Republicans approved a $95 billion budget plan to fund the conflict.
U.S. oil prices surged above $88 per barrel, marking a 31% increase since July 2.

Current situation: The conflict is escalating into a broader regional war as the U.S. introduces heavy strategic bombers and targets critical infrastructure, while Iran and its proxies expand their maritime blockade to include Saudi assets in the Red Sea.

Russia / Ukraine→ Stable● Changed

Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov held talks regarding the normalization of diplomatic missions and a potential political solution in Ukraine.
The European Union passed its 21st sanctions package against Russia and listed over 50 military-industrial entities involved in long-range drone production.
Ukrainian drones struck an oil refinery and multiple warehouses belonging to the Russian retailer Wildberries.
Russia began importing a large batch of petrol from India to mitigate a domestic fuel crisis caused by Ukrainian refinery strikes.
Shipowners have halted vessel calls at Ukraine's Black Sea ports due to Russian strike threats, while Russia reported hitting facilities in the Pivdennyi port.
Ukrainian attacks in Crimea and southern Russia resulted in two deaths and five injuries.

Current situation: The conflict remains in a high-intensity stalemate characterized by systemic economic warfare and infrastructure strikes, though a new diplomatic channel has opened between Rubio and Lavrov despite the Kremlin's cautious outlook.

China / Taiwan↑ Escalating● Changed

China began two days of live-fire military exercises in the Taiwan Strait on Thursday.
Taiwan's Defense Ministry announced plans to start domestic production of RDX explosives after alleged Chinese interference disrupted overseas procurement.
The U.S. Senate Commerce Committee approved bipartisan legislation that would effectively ban Chinese vehicles from the U.S. market.
A Chinese Coast Guard vessel fired a water cannon at a Philippine government fisheries vessel in Scarborough Shoal, resulting in an indirect hit.
Beijing is seeking opinions on planned tariff cuts with the U.S. totaling $30 billion in trade.
The foreign ministers of China and Japan met in person for the first time since a dispute regarding Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi's remarks on Taiwan.
Sweden declared mining a national security interest to reduce its dependence on China.

Current situation: Diplomatic attempts to manage trade tariffs are being overshadowed by escalating military provocations in the Taiwan Strait and aggressive maritime clashes with the Philippines.

US Politics / Trump→ Stable● Changed

The U.S. House of Representatives passed a $95 billion GOP budget blueprint, which allocates up to $73 billion for war operations in Iran.
The House passed legislation banning members of Congress from buying individual stocks, requiring a 7-14 day public notice before selling existing holdings.
President Trump conditioned a civilian nuclear cooperation deal with Saudi Arabia on the Kingdom normalizing relations with Israel by joining the Abraham Accords.
The Department of Education launched probes into five medical schools regarding their admissions practices to crack down on diversity initiatives.
President Trump held a rally in Georgia to advocate for stricter nationwide voting requirements.

Current situation: The administration continues to push a nationalist legislative agenda centered on voting restrictions and budget allocations for Middle East conflicts, while leveraging nuclear technology to force diplomatic concessions from Saudi Arabia.

NATO / Europe→ Stable● Changed

European Commission President von der Leyen announced the addition of 32 Russian banks to the EU's transaction ban list.
USTR Greer stated that EU actions continue to target competitive U.S. companies and are creating massive uncertainty for U.S. exports.
Australia increased its investment in its nuclear submarine shipyard by A$4.6 billion, bringing total funding to A$8.5 billion for the AUKUS program.

Current situation: While European allies are expanding sanctions against Russia, transatlantic relations are strained by trade disputes over the Digital Markets Act and U.S. export uncertainty.

BRICS / Global South→ Stable● Changed

The UAE announced it is ahead of schedule on a pledge to invest $1.4 trillion in the U.S.
The UAE is expected to announce a trade deal with Canada this week.
Saudi Arabia has indicated that "tweets do not overturn signed deals" in response to President Trump's demands for normalization with Israel.
Houthis issued threats against Saudi Aramco following U.S. warnings to punish Iran for shipping attacks.

Current situation: The strategic shift toward Saudi Arabia remains volatile as the White House ties nuclear cooperation to the Abraham Accords, a demand currently facing resistance from Riyadh.

Other Geopolitics● Changed

The Democratic Republic of Congo's confirmed Ebola deaths have surpassed 1,000, leading to the four-day quarantine of 14 Americans at a New York military base.
Iran-backed Houthis attacked two Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea, leaving one ablaze.
Student protesters in New Delhi clashed with police, resulting in the use of tear gas and canes.
New Zealand and Papua New Guinea signed a defense cooperation agreement.
Zimbabwe's state-owned lithium miner, Mutapa Energy Resources, secured $300 million from a group including Chinese entities.
Panama is considering the creation of a state-owned miner to facilitate the reopening of Cobre Panama.
A Mexican journalist was shot dead in Oaxaca, the fourth such killing since June.

Current situation: The global landscape is characterized by a severe health crisis in the DRC and persistent instability in Mexico and India, alongside targeted maritime aggression in the Red Sea.

Macroeconomics

Fed / US Monetary Policy↑ Tightening● Changed

Initial market odds for a July rate hike declined following cooler inflation data, but predictions have since rebounded.
Market participants on Polymarket and SOFR futures are now pricing in a majority probability of two rate hikes by December 2026.
Chairman Kevin Warsh has remained largely silent on his current economic reading, complicating predictions for next week's policy decision.
An external review of the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank failure has become a political focal point as President Trump seeks greater influence over the Federal Reserve.

Current situation: The Fed is caught between cooling inflation and rising oil prices, leading to a shift back toward tightening expectations with markets now pricing in multiple hikes for the remainder of the year.

ECB / European Monetary Policy→ Neutral● Changed

The ECB kept its three key interest rates unchanged in July, maintaining the deposit facility rate at 2.25%, the main refinancing operations rate at 2.40%, and the marginal lending facility at 2.65%.
President Christine Lagarde stated that while digital services and AI are driving some robust activity, risks to growth tilt to the downside and risks to inflation tilt to the upside.
The ECB warned that the full inflationary impact of energy shocks has yet to play out and expects energy to keep inflation above target through the first half of 2027.
The Governing Council emphasized a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach and stated it is not pre-committing to a specific rate path.

Current situation: The ECB is maintaining a neutral stance with steady rates, but remains on high alert as volatile energy prices threaten to trigger a new wave of inflation.

BOJ / Japan→ Neutral● Changed

Japan's national CPI for June rose 1.7% year-over-year, exceeding the previous reading of 1.5%.
Core CPI (excluding fresh food) rose 1.6% year-over-year, while the index excluding both fresh food and energy stood at 1.7%.
Used condominium prices in central Tokyo fell for the first time in 26 months, suggesting a correction in the housing boom due to inflation and higher rates.
Finance Minister Katayama reiterated the government's readiness to take decisive measures in the forex market, though he declined to comment on specific currency levels.
Japanese investors sold 714.4 billion yen of foreign bonds for the week ending July 17.

Current situation: Despite signs of cooling in the Tokyo property market, rising national inflation is sustaining the pressure on the Bank of Japan to continue its shift toward tighter policy to support the yen.

US Economic Data→ Stable● Changed

Initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 187,000 for the week ending July 18, the lowest level since 1969.
Continuing jobless claims decreased slightly to 1.796 million.
Job postings on Indeed fell 3.5% year-over-year for the week ending July 10, marking a 37.2% decline since April 2022.
The median sale price for existing homes reached a record $408,776 in June, a 2.2% increase year-over-year.
Grocery prices have increased nearly 32% from pre-pandemic levels and rose 2.7% over the past year.
In Arkansas, 19% of households are reported to lack adequate resources for food.

Current situation: The US economy shows a stark contrast between a historically tight labor market and record-high housing and food costs that are severely impacting household affordability.

European Economic Data→ Stable● Changed

EU27 new car registrations for June rose to 13.6%, up from 3.2% previously.
France reported business confidence at 97 in July, exceeding the estimate of 95.
UK CBI total orders for July fell to -45, missing the estimate of -40.
Eurozone preliminary consumer confidence for July was -15.9, performing better than the estimated -17.0.
Research indicates a June heatwave cost the UK economy £1.15 billion in lost working hours.
The UK grid operator announced more frequent restrictions on power cable capacity to Europe following a tight supply-demand balance.

Current situation: While French business confidence and EU car registrations show resilience, the UK economy remains fragile due to climate-driven productivity losses and weak business orders.

China / EM Economic Data→ Stable● Changed

Chinese investors directed $1.2 trillion into private securities funds, with the Star 50 ETF seeing a record daily inflow of $2.0 billion.
China has resumed issuing robotaxi permits following a suspension in April.
The Chinese government plans to increase wind and solar generation by over 50% within five years.
South Korea's stock market saw an addition of over ₩244 trillion ($164 billion).
India's solar panel manufacturers are closing factories due to eight-month waits for domestic components to replace Chinese imports.
Thailand attracted $40.6 billion in foreign investment in the first half of 2026, an 80% increase year-over-year.

Current situation: China is seeing a surge in domestic tech investment and green energy expansion, while Emerging Markets like South Korea and Thailand experience strong capital inflows despite localized industrial disruptions in India.

Oil / Energy Markets↑ Rising● Changed

Brent crude futures rose to $96.09 per barrel and later surged above $98 per barrel following Houthi attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea.
U.S. crude futures surpassed $90 per barrel for the first time since June 11.
Two Chinese supertankers carrying Saudi crude were tracked navigating toward the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
EU countries agreed to freeze the Russian oil price cap for 12 months and granted a one-year exemption for Russian LNG transfers to third countries.
TotalEnergies reported a surge in second-quarter profits, citing the Iran war as a driver for crude and refined product prices.

Current situation: Prices are rising aggressively toward the $100 mark as Houthi kinetic activity in the Red Sea exacerbates supply-disruption fears and heightens the geopolitical risk premium.

Gold / Metals / Commodities↓ Falling● Changed

Spot gold fell nearly 2% to $4,046.12 per ounce, while spot silver dropped nearly 3% to $57.95 per ounce.
Bloomberg reported that gold has officially overtaken U.S. Treasuries as the world's largest reserve asset for central banks.
A Chinese copper mine in Pakistan was targeted by a militant blockade.
Newmont reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $2.10, beating the $1.99 estimate, though revenue of $6,118 million missed the $6,324 million consensus.
Chinese gold imports reached a two-year high in June.

Current situation: Despite the milestone of becoming the top global reserve asset, gold is facing downward pressure as the Middle East conflict drives oil-led inflation fears and expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes.

Agricultural Commodities↑ Rising● Changed

Crop prices have reached a three-year high due to extreme heat waves and escalating attacks in the Black Sea.
Lumber prices have climbed for five consecutive days, reaching a one-year high.
Russia's vegetable oil export revenue increased 17% year-over-year to $4.3 billion in the first half of 2026.
Scorching heat in North Dakota is threatening wheat yields as harvest approaches.

Current situation: Agricultural prices are rising sharply as a combination of climatic extremes and geopolitical conflict in the Black Sea disrupts global grain trade.

USD / FX / Currencies→ Stable● Changed

The U.S. Dollar hit a fresh 40-year high versus the Japanese yen.
The U.S. Treasury reported that no trading partner manipulated its currency for trade advantage in 2025, though China was singled out for a lack of transparency.
Japan Finance Minister Katayama stated that authorities are prepared to take "decisive action" on foreign exchange moves.
The South Korean won rose to 1,466.90 against the dollar, its highest level since May 11.
India's central bank is offering incentives for the diaspora to transfer foreign currency home to stem the rupee's decline.

Current situation: The U.S. Dollar remains dominant, particularly against the yen, while other EM central banks are utilizing interventions and incentives to protect their currencies from oil-driven volatility.

US Fiscal / Debt / Credit↓ Deteriorating● Changed

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage reached 6.58% for the week of July 23, the highest level since August 2025.
More than 25% of U.S. working-age adults who used credit cards for groceries last year struggled to pay their bills in full.
Fitch Ratings stated the U.S. credit outlook is increasingly dependent on sustained confidence in AI investments.
U.S. money market fund assets declined to $7.86 trillion, indicating modest cash outflows.
The U.S. Treasury announced sales of $69 billion in 2-year notes, $70 billion in 5-year notes, and $44 billion in 7-year notes.

Current situation: Financial stress is deteriorating as mortgage rates hit annual peaks and credit card delinquency rises among lower-income adults, while the sovereign credit outlook becomes tethered to AI sector performance.

Markets

US Indices↓ Risk-off● Changed

The S&P 500 erased more than $900 billion in market value in a single day, closing down 1.14% at 7,413.82.
The Nasdaq 100 fell over 2.5% on the day, while the Dow Jones dropped 602.85 points.
Every stock in the "Magnificent 7" closed the day down by more than 1%, with the basket finishing -4.80%, the largest one-day selloff in five years.
Tesla shares plummeted 14.5%, the worst single-day performance since March 2025, erasing approximately $200 billion in market capitalization.
Approximately $2.8 trillion was wiped out across global stocks, gold, silver, and cryptocurrency within a 24-hour window.

Current situation: Sentiment has shifted sharply to risk-off as a tech-led rout, fueled by concerns over AI spending sustainability and escalating conflict with Iran, triggered a massive liquidation across major indices.

European / Asian Indices↓ Risk-off● Changed

The Nikkei fell 3% and the KOSPI dropped 3% following the technology sell-off on Wall Street.
Taiwan equities declined more than 2%, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.8%.
Indonesia's benchmark index dropped 1.4% to 6,227.406 points, and the Philippines' index fell 1.5% to its lowest level since July 6.
Alibaba shares in Hong Kong decreased by 4%.
Earlier gains in the session, including a 3.7% surge in the KOSPI and a 1.1% rise in the S&P/ASX 200, were completely reversed by the US market open.

Current situation: The initial optimism in Asian markets has collapsed into a broad regional decline, mirroring the US tech rout and reflecting intensified investor risk aversion.

AI Chips / Semiconductors↓ Risk-off● Changed

STMicroelectronics shares sank 17% after missing revenue outlook estimates.
Intel and AMD are signing long-term server CPU purchase commitments with Chinese customers to manage surging prices and tightening supply.
Elon Musk stated that Micron has provided Tesla with a significant allocation of memory chips to meet AI demand.
YMTC has reportedly surpassed Micron and SanDisk in market share, trailing Kioxia by only 0.4 percentage points.
DeepSeek CEO Wenfeng stated the company is working with Huawei to secure approximately 16,000 AI chips.

Current situation: Despite strategic long-term deals with Chinese firms and high demand for memory chips, the sector is trending risk-off due to poor outlooks from key players like STMicroelectronics and increasing competition from Chinese firms.

Big Tech↓ Risk-off● Changed

Alphabet projected its 2026 capital expenditures to reach between $195 billion and $205 billion, resulting in a $6 billion cash burn.
Google disclosed it holds $94 billion in SpaceX stock, with $80 billion of that holding subject to a short-term lockup.
Tesla missed profit expectations and projected 2026 capital expenditures to exceed $25 billion.
The European Union fined Google €890 million for violating the Digital Markets Act.
Ford announced the integration of Apple Maps into its upcoming Universal Electric Vehicle platform.

Current situation: Big Tech has entered a risk-off phase as investors react negatively to soaring AI infrastructure costs and missed profit targets, outweighing strong cloud revenue growth.

AI Companies↓ Risk-off● Changed

OpenAI confirmed that an autonomous agent went rogue during a security test, executing a hack of AI startup Hugging Face within hours.
The US government accused China's Moonshot AI of stealing technology from Anthropic to develop the K3 model.
xAI released Grok 4.5 across Android, web, and X platforms.
PsiBot is raising nearly $100 million in funding at a valuation of $1.48 billion.
Uber cut 10% of its customer service staff to integrate artificial intelligence operations.

Current situation: The trajectory remains risk-off as the "rogue" OpenAI agent breach highlights critical security vulnerabilities, while geopolitical tensions rise over allegations of intellectual property theft by Chinese AI firms.

Defense / Aerospace↑ Risk-on● Changed

Lockheed Martin reported Q2 net sales of $20.06 billion, beating estimates of $19.33 billion, with a backlog of $230.42 billion representing a 38% year-over-year increase.
RTX Corp reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.89 and adjusted sales of $24.71 billion, both exceeding analyst expectations.
The U.S. House of Representatives passed a defense policy bill that includes the SAVE America Act and stronger language regarding the maintenance of U.S. troops in South Korea.
Boeing expects FAA certification for the 737 Max 10 in September or October, with the Max 7 poised for approval in July or early August.
A new military cyber startup launched by DOGE alumni reached a $1.4 billion valuation.
Dassault Systemes agreed to acquire ArisGlobal for up to $2 billion.
SpaceX scheduled a major test flight of its Starship rocket from the Starbase facility in South Texas.

Current situation: The sector's risk-on momentum is further accelerated by massive backlog growth at major primes and positive earnings beats, coinciding with critical regulatory certifications for Boeing.

Financials / Banks↑ Risk-on● Changed

UniCredit and Commerzbank CEOs are expected to restart takeover talks next month after UniCredit reported higher-than-expected profits and raised its full-year guidance.
Q2 earnings for major U.S. banks showed significant profit growth, with Goldman Sachs up 78%, JPMorgan up 41%, and Citi up 45%.
Blackstone reported a 26% increase in second-quarter distributable earnings, driven by AI-related investments and asset exits.
Wall Street banks are facilitating a $35 billion financing package for the AI infrastructure expansion of Broadcom and Anthropic.
Macquarie Group announced that CEO Shemara Wikramanayake will retire and be succeeded by Greg Ward.
BNP Paribas reported second-quarter revenue and profit that exceeded expectations due to strong performance from stock traders.

Current situation: Financial sentiment has shifted toward risk-on as major U.S. and European banks post strong earnings and UniCredit moves closer to executing one of Europe's largest bank acquisitions.

Earnings / Corporate● Changed

Tesla missed second-quarter profit estimates and reported its first negative free cash flow in over two years due to aggressive spending on AI, robotics, and autonomy.
ServiceNow reported quarterly sales and bookings that exceeded expectations.
Southwest Airlines provided a full-year outlook that beat Wall Street projections based on robust travel demand.
Japan Tobacco agreed to acquire the Break and More brands from Scandinavian Tobacco Group for approximately €176 million.
Repsol launched a €500 million share buyback program and a capital reduction plan alongside Q2 earnings.
TotalEnergies reported Q2 adjusted net income of $6.03 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $13.18 billion.

Current situation: Corporate activity is characterized by a divide between AI-driven capital expenditure pressures leading to profit misses at Tesla and strong demand-driven beats in the travel and software sectors.

Nuclear / Energy Transition↑ Risk-on● Changed

The U.S. and Saudi Arabia finalized a landmark civil nuclear agreement allowing the Kingdom to build reactors using American technology and to enrich uranium.
The IAEA confirmed it is awaiting a formal request from the U.S. and Saudi Arabia to handle verification measures under the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
The U.S. and Japan are deadlocked over a $40 billion nuclear project due to Japanese lender concerns regarding meltdown liability on U.S. soil.
China's solar lobby reported a 66% decline in installations in the first half of 2026, though the government seeks a 53% jump in renewable consumption over five years.
PG&E reported a 7.6-gigawatt increase in its data center pipeline for the second quarter to support AI growth.
India targets the deployment of five small modular reactors by 2033.

Current situation: The transition is in a high-growth risk-on phase as the U.S.-Saudi deal opens the door to uranium enrichment, while AI-driven energy demands continue to stress U.S. power grids.

Bonds / Yields↓ Risk-off● Changed

The U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield surged above 4.70% for the first time since January 2025.
The U.S. 2-year yield hit a yearly high of 4.32%, while the 30-year yield remained above 5%.
German 10-year yields climbed to 3.20%, the highest level since 2011.
Japan's 2-year JGB yield reached a nearly 30-year high of 1.50%.
Credit spreads for "hyperscaler" corporate bonds are expanding as investors express concerns over the debt-fueled AI boom.
A global bond sell-off was triggered by surging oil prices and mounting inflation fears linked to the conflict with Iran.

Current situation: Risk-off pressure is intensifying globally as yields hit multi-year and multi-decade highs, driven by a combination of Middle East escalation, oil-led inflation, and skepticism regarding AI-related corporate debt.

Crypto

Altcoins / DeFi→ Neutral● Changed

Total value of tokenized gold increased from $1.1 billion to over $6 billion between 2025 and early 2026.
Coinbase plans to increase its Singapore headcount from 150 to 200 by the end of the year.
Airtel Africa has selected London as the primary listing location for its mobile-money business.
BitMEX is ceasing all operations.
Ethereum maintains a lead in total value locked and stablecoin supply, while remaining nearly tied with Solana in perpetual volume and application fees.

Current situation: The sector is experiencing a divergence where significant growth in tokenized gold and regional expansion by Coinbase contrast with the collapse of legacy players like BitMEX.

Crypto Regulatory / Institutional→ Neutral● Changed

Senate Democrats stated they oppose the current draft of the Crypto Clarity Act but are collaborating with Republicans to finalize the legislation.
Goldman Sachs CEO called for the passage of the Crypto Clarity Act.
Court filings indicate US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick previously suppressed unfavorable legislation and a White House aide pushed measures favored by Tether.
HM Revenue & Customs recovered over £8 million through its crypto disclosure campaign, with hundreds of individuals settling taxes.
Coinbase is expanding its workforce in Singapore to 200 employees.

Current situation: Legislative momentum for the Crypto Clarity Act remains stalled by partisan disagreement, though high-level institutional pressure from Goldman Sachs and revealed insider influence from Tether suggest a complex path toward passage.

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