AUG 13, 2026 · K2 CAPITAL MANAGEMENT

Daily Brief — August 13, 2026

Iran has completely ruled out extending the 60-day ceasefire period from the collapsed US-Iran memorandum of understanding.

Iran has completely ruled out extending the 60-day ceasefire period from the collapsed US-Iran memorandum of understanding.

Geopolitics

Iran / Hormuz↑ Escalating● Changed

Only 14 vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, and shipping traffic has fallen to a one-week low.
Iran completely ruled out extending the 60-day ceasefire period from the collapsed US-Iran memorandum of understanding, with officials stating the U.S. violated the interim pact within 48 hours.
IRGC senior advisor Mohammad Reza Naqdi stated Iran could prolong the war until 2029 to coincide with the end of Donald Trump's presidency.
Iran-backed Houthi rebels killed six people aboard a cargo ship in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Tuesday.
U.S. forces expended approximately 50 Patriot interceptors in a single day during last month's Iranian attacks on bases in Jordan, costing roughly $200 million.
President Donald Trump asserted that the U.S. maintains total control over the Strait of Hormuz and expressed a lack of trust in Iran.
An oil spill occurred off Iran's Qeshm Island, affecting beaches near endangered sea turtle breeding grounds.

Current situation: Diplomacy has effectively collapsed as Tehran rejects ceasefire extensions and signals a long-term war of attrition, while maritime traffic remains near a standstill despite U.S. claims of control.

Israel / Lebanon / Hezbollah↑ Escalating● Changed

The U.S. State Department and the Trump administration criticized Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, stating that Israel's permanent military presence in southern Lebanon is inconsistent with the US-backed framework agreement.
Defense Minister Israel Katz responded that the IDF will maintain a long-term presence and will not withdraw from the security zone.
Satellite imagery and verified footage indicate Israeli forces have systematically destroyed homes, roads, farmland, and civilian infrastructure in occupied southern Lebanon.
Britain, Italy, Switzerland, and Indonesia are being considered for a foreign mission to verify Hezbollah's disarmament through village inspections.
Israeli troops clashed with settlers who were besieging Palestinian homes in the West Bank.

Current situation: Tensions are escalating between Washington and Tel Aviv over the IDF's refusal to withdraw from southern Lebanon, coinciding with evidence of systemic infrastructure destruction in the region.

Russia / Ukraine→ Stable● Changed

Ukraine launched a massive drone attack on Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, targeting grain terminals and a naval base.
Ukraine agreed to stop targeting non-Russian vessels in the Black Sea following a July 31 call between Vice President JD Vance and President Zelenskyy.
Russia reported downing 502 Ukrainian drones in a single night.
Russian crude-only production lagged behind its OPEC+ quota by nearly one million barrels a day in July due to near-daily Ukrainian strikes on oil infrastructure.
Ukrainian drone units defeated a U.S. armored brigade during a major military exercise in Germany, exposing gaps in U.S. adaptation to drone warfare.
Russian "ghost fleet" tankers are utilizing specialized nets to protect against Ukrainian drone strikes.
President Vladimir Putin visited the Sakhalin region to address sovereignty over the disputed Kuril Islands.

Current situation: The conflict remains in a high-intensity attrition phase, with Ukraine shifting to target critical Russian maritime logistics despite U.S. pressure to protect international shipping.

China / Taiwan↑ Escalating● Changed

Taiwan condemned planned Chinese navy drills with Indonesia to its east as dangerous and sought clarification from Indonesia regarding its participation.
Taiwan arrested two mainland Chinese nationals after their boat bypassed coastal defenses.
Taiwan reported an unprecedented autonomous AI-driven cyber attack targeting government agencies last month.
Satellite imagery indicates China is increasing capacity to store and fire missiles on its most advanced frigate model.
Taiwan conducted anti-blockade naval drills during its annual war games, simulating the escort of a merchant ship using the navy and coast guard.

Current situation: Tensions are escalating as Beijing integrates AI into cyber warfare and expands naval capabilities, prompting Taiwan to conduct active anti-blockade simulations.

US Politics / Trump→ Stable● Changed

President Trump secretly transferred to a military jet during a NATO summit in Turkey following an alleged Iranian assassination plot, a move he stated was made under Secret Service guidance.
The administration finalized a rule barring federal health programs from funding hormone therapy, puberty blockers, and surgeries for minors with gender dysphoria.
The Treasury Department finalized a rule exempting U.S. companies and individuals from reporting beneficial ownership information to the financial crimes unit.
Discussions regarding long-term capital gains tax cuts include a proposal to index gains for inflation before taxes are calculated.
In GOP primary results, Michele Tafoya won the Senate nomination in Minnesota, and State Rep. Rhett Marques won a congressional nomination in Alabama.
Darline Graham and Ralph Norman advanced to an August 25 runoff for the Republican nomination for the late Lindsey Graham's Senate seat in South Carolina.
Tom Tiffany secured the Republican nomination for Wisconsin governor.

Current situation: The administration continues its institutional consolidation and policy shifts on healthcare and finance, while the presidency's security apparatus manages the fallout from a covert extraction in Turkey.

NATO / Europe↑ Escalating● Changed

NATO allies convened to discuss violations of Polish and Romanian airspace.
European intelligence officials warned that Russia may escalate attacks against Poland and the Baltic States to intimidate nations supporting Ukraine.
Germany's counterintelligence agency warned of a coordinated Russian influence campaign designed to deepen social divisions before next month's regional elections.

Current situation: Security is escalating on the eastern flank as airspace violations and threats of kinetic attacks against NATO members increase alongside Russian hybrid influence operations.

BRICS / Global South→ Stable● Changed

BRICS nations are discussing the integration of payment systems and Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs).
India plans to tighten regulations on foreign-funded NGOs and is planning insurance reforms to reduce healthcare costs.
The chairman of the Tata Group resigned, creating a leadership vacuum during a major five-year reinvestment program.
Saudi Arabia is pursuing defensive alliances to deter conflict, while Saudi-backed mercenaries were targeted in Al-Mahra, Yemen.
The Bolsonaro campaign in Brazil is drafting a debt-linked fiscal rule to replace the current national framework.

Current situation: The Global South continues to explore alternative financial architectures via BRICS while regional powers like India increase regulatory controls.

Other Geopolitics● Changed

The death toll from the 7.4-magnitude earthquake in Colombia has risen above 200 people.
North Korea fired a ballistic missile toward the sea off its east coast days before scheduled joint military exercises with the U.S. and South Korea.
An attack on the South Zawiya substation in Libya knocked the facility out of service and cut power to wide areas south of the city.
An explosion occurred at Al-Rayyan International Airport in Al-Mukalla, Yemen.
Venezuela and Israel restored consular ties after 17 years of no diplomatic relations.
New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon won a confidence vote of ruling party lawmakers following speculation about his leadership.
Canada is weighing a proposal on auto tariffs while seeking a reprieve from the U.S.
DR Congo reported 4,449 confirmed Ebola cases and 2,061 deaths.
Three Pakistani nationals were killed in an attack on a vessel in the Red Sea.

Macroeconomics

Fed / US Monetary Policy↓ Easing● Changed

July CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, matching market expectations.
July Core CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year, also meeting estimates.
Market odds for a September rate hike fell to 31% following the inflation report, down from previous estimates of roughly 50%.
Goldman Sachs and Baird stated that the July CPI data strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady in September.
The probability that the Fed will raise rates at any point in 2026 has dropped to 55%, down from over 75% earlier this month.
A top Federal Reserve official noted that poorer Americans are currently struggling to make ends meet, while Governor Collins stated that inflation remains too high.

Current situation: Hawkish pressure is receding as in-line inflation data has significantly lowered the probability of a September rate hike, shifting the immediate outlook toward a hold.

BOJ / Japan↑ Tightening● Changed

Japan's wholesale inflation remains elevated, increasing the likelihood of a Bank of Japan rate hike in September.
The Japanese government is reportedly supportive of a faster pace of rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.
The U.S. and Japan are currently divided regarding the next policy step for the Bank of Japan.
Reports indicate a split between Bessent and Takaichi regarding BOJ risks, which may undermine joint efforts to rescue the yen.

Current situation: Domestic inflationary pressure and government support are accelerating the momentum toward policy normalization, despite diplomatic frictions with the U.S. over the timing.

US Economic Data→ Stable● Changed

July CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, while Core CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year.
U.S. government job openings increased by 10,000 to 823,000 in June.
Average 30-year mortgage rates were 6.77% as of August 7, a slight decrease from 6.81%.
Mortgage applications for the week of August 7 rose 3.6%.
Over the last 12 months, the U.S. labor market saw a net loss of 142,000 jobs held by men and a net gain of 298,000 jobs held by women.
Real average hourly earnings fell 0.2% year-over-year in July.

Current situation: Economic indicators are mixed, with stable inflation and a slight softening in mortgage rates contrasting with a widening gender divide in employment and falling real wages.

European Economic Data→ Stable● Changed

Germany's July CPI remained flat at 0.8% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, matching previous figures and estimates.
Sweden reported a significant increase in June household consumption, rising 4.3% year-over-year compared to 2.1% previously.
Norway's Q3 consumer confidence improved to -16.6 from a previous -20.0.
Germany has requested non-binding offers for the nationalized energy company Uniper SE by September 21.

Current situation: Economic performance remains fragmented, though steady inflation in Germany and a sharp rebound in Swedish consumption suggest a stabilizing environment.

China / EM Economic Data↓ Deteriorating● Changed

China's vehicle sales declined 3.7% year-over-year for the January-July period, a sharp reversal from the 12% growth seen the previous year.
The People's Bank of China reported that seven-day reverse repo volume hit zero for three consecutive days due to a lack of primary dealer demand.
South Korea recorded a foreign net stock investment outflow of $20.70 billion in July and a net bond outflow of $0.96 billion.
Japan's July machine tool orders fell to 50.4% year-over-year from 52.7%.
China's July New Energy Vehicle (NEV) sales increased 23.7% year-over-year.

Current situation: Momentum is deteriorating as China faces a significant slump in overall vehicle sales and liquidity strains at the PBOC, offsetting growth in the EV sector.

Oil / Energy Markets↑ Rising● Changed

Brent crude jumped above $90 per barrel before settling at $88.98, marking its sixth straight session of gains.
The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 298.7 million barrels, dropping below the 300 million barrel threshold for the first time since 1983.
Saudi Arabia reported to OPEC that it increased crude production by over 1 million barrels per day last month.
Saudi Red Sea crude loadings were conducted with ship tracking disabled following increased Houthi attacks.
Russia has begun importing gasoline from India to address severe local shortages caused by Ukrainian refinery attacks.
The IEA forecasts a global oil deficit of 1.8 million barrels per day this quarter.

Current situation: Prices are trending upward as deadlock in U.S.-Iran negotiations and intensified Red Sea insecurity override production increases and lower demand forecasts.

Gold / Metals / Commodities↑ Rising● Changed

Spot gold rose 1% to $4,409.35 per ounce, breaking through a long-term resistance level.
The People's Bank of China added approximately 20 tonnes of gold in July, the largest monthly increase since October 2023.
Rio Tinto received a $1.8 billion bailout to maintain operations at Australia's largest aluminum smelter.
Copper reached a record high outside of a January spike, breaching $14,000 per ton due to U.S. stockpiling and rising Chinese orders.
Codelco expects lower copper production this year due to setbacks at its Chilean mines and projects.

Current situation: The rally in precious metals is accelerating toward new highs, driven by record Chinese accumulation and a reduction in Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations.

Agricultural Commodities→ Stable● Changed

US WASDE August data shows corn end stocks at 1.653 billion bushels, lower than the 1.737 billion estimated.
Soybean end stocks were reported at 320 million bushels, exceeding the 300 million estimate.
Total wheat end stocks were recorded at 717 million bushels, slightly below the 720 million estimate.
New Zealand retail beef mince prices have reached historic highs, marking the largest annual increase on record.
The USDA recalled nearly 30,000 pounds of Argentine beef from Texas and Florida due to insufficient inspection.

Current situation: The market remains balanced, though localized price spikes in New Zealand and inventory adjustments in US grains suggest underlying volatility.

USD / FX / Currencies→ Stable● Changed

The Chinese Yuan reached its strongest level against the U.S. Dollar since February 2023.
The Japanese Yen held steady near 160 per dollar following the release of US CPI data.
China authorized Deutsche Bank as the first non-Chinese lender permitted to settle yuan transactions in Europe.
An Australian central banker stated that interest rate risks are currently skewed higher.
Canada and the U.S. have yet to reach a tariff deal, with Canada rejecting the latest U.S. offer.

Current situation: The dollar remains resilient but is facing pressure from a strengthening yuan and ongoing intervention concerns regarding the yen's proximity to the 160 level.

US Fiscal / Debt / Credit↓ Deteriorating● Changed

The U.S. federal budget deficit for July surged to $432.3 billion, the highest level in five years and 48% higher than last year.
U.S. household debt fell by $13 billion in Q2 2026 to $18.77 trillion, the first quarterly decline since the 2020 pandemic.
A Schroders report indicates that 1 in 3 U.S. workers now hold more credit card debt than retirement savings.
Commercial property and casualty insurance premiums fell 1.2% in Q1 2026, ending a nine-year streak of increases.
Crystal City, Texas, missed debt service payments in August following severe flooding.

Current situation: Financial stability is deteriorating as a surging federal deficit and critical gaps in consumer retirement savings overshadow a marginal dip in aggregate household debt.

Markets

US Indices→ Neutral● Changed

The S&P 500 ended the session higher at 7,749.44, while the Nasdaq Composite rose to 26,578.77 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished slightly lower at 53,762.71.
Institutional investors sold $21.6 billion of Nasdaq futures during the week ending August 4, including $11.9 billion from hedge funds.
The CBOE Volatility Index hit a seven-month low, reaching 14.84.
The stock market fear and greed index moved into "Greed" territory, recording a value of 62/100.
Ed Yardeni raised his S&P 500 target above his previous Street-high projection citing earnings momentum.

Current situation: The market is in a state of tension as strong earnings and cooling inflation data fuel a retail-led rally, while heavy institutional dumping of tech futures suggests a divergence in sentiment.

European / Asian Indices↑ Risk-on● Changed

South Korea's KOSPI surged up to 5.1% at its session high, adding over $175 billion in market value.
Asian stocks rose following US inflation data that reduced bets for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September.
Samsung Electronics shares jumped 8.5% amid a broader rally in the South Korean market.
The S&P/ASX 200 closed down 0.5% at 9,209.40 points.
European indices remained steady, though the FTSE 100, DAX, and IBEX all saw minor declines of approximately 0.17% to 0.18%, while the CAC 40 dropped 0.53%.
Indonesian equities fell up to 1.5% to 6,281.572 amid selling pressure.

Current situation: Sentiment has shifted toward risk-on in Asia, led by a massive recovery in South Korean AI-linked stocks, while European markets remain cautious and flat.

AI Chips / Semiconductors↑ Risk-on● Changed

Server DDR5 memory prices increased between 15% and 23% this month.
Singapore's Temasek Holdings plans to make its first-ever investment in Korean stocks through Samsung and SK Hynix.
Super Micro Computer shares gained over 7% after providing a quarterly sales forecast that exceeded analyst estimates.
Samsung Electronics adopted Anthropic's Claude LLM to accelerate semiconductor design and verification work.
The USITC launched a Section 337 investigation into Samsung devices following patent infringement allegations from Maxell.
AMD projected that the server CPU market will exceed $200 billion by 2030.
Cerebras Systems reported Q2 revenue of $180.1 million, missing the $194 million estimate, but raised its full-year revenue guidance to between $880 million and $890 million.
Michael Burry added short positions in Micron, Nebius, and Oracle.

Current situation: The sector is experiencing a powerful bullish rebound driven by strong server demand and sovereign wealth investment, though this is contrasted by emerging patent litigation and high-profile short bets.

Big Tech→ Neutral● Changed

Google unveiled the Pixel 11 Pro Fold for pre-order and announced Pixel Tags, priced at $29 individually or $99 for a four-pack.
Google co-founder Sergey Brin has urged staff to prioritize returning the Gemini model to the frontier of AI.
Apple has increased iPhone production in India to mitigate risks associated with China.
Meta removed over 750,000 accounts in Australia suspected to belong to users under age 16.
TikTok mandated a five-day-a-week return to office for its US staff starting next month.
Oracle partnered with Quantinuum to integrate quantum computing into the cloud.
A judge ruled that Meta fostered social media addiction, leading to a $67.1 million legal fee award for the law firm Motley Rice.

Current situation: Big Tech is maintaining a neutral trajectory as companies pivot toward diversified supply chains and new hardware launches while facing significant regulatory pressure and internal AI reshuffling.

AI Companies↑ Risk-on● Changed

SpaceX shares surged over 10% in a single day, adding $530 billion to its market cap and rising 40% over five trading days.
SpaceXAI launched Grok 4.6, pricing input tokens at $2 and output tokens at $6.
CoreWeave shares surged after raising its outlook; JPMorgan raised its price target for the company to $120 from $110.
Accel raised $3.5 billion to invest in global AI startups.
Cognition AI is in talks for a funding round that could value the company at $40 billion.
Nebius reported a 514% increase in second-quarter cloud sales.
CodeRabbit raised $143 million for its AI-powered code review service.

Current situation: The sector is accelerating rapidly, characterized by massive valuation spikes for SpaceX and CoreWeave and a surge in venture capital for specialized AI coding tools.

Defense / Aerospace↑ Risk-on● Changed

Ark Invest purchased 292,873 shares of Rocket Lab, totaling over $23 million.
Germany's TKMS raised its full-year outlook due to surging European demand for submarines, warships, and underwater electronics.
The Pentagon is accelerating the deployment of counter-drone systems and high-powered lasers at key US facilities.
Secretary of War Pete Hegseth announced a proposed $1.5 trillion military budget for a generational investment in spending.
India issued a $10 billion global tender for the domestic manufacture of at least 60 multirole transport aircraft.
Rolls-Royce will provide 33 MTU engines to modernize the freight locomotive fleet of South Korea.
Morgan Stanley reiterated an Overweight rating on SpaceX with a $300 price target and a $600 bull case.
A training F-16 aircraft crashed in Turkey.
Sailors on the USS Abraham Lincoln attempted to jump overboard after spending 250 consecutive days at sea.

Current situation: Strategic procurement is shifting into a massive expansion phase characterized by a proposed $1.5 trillion US budget and heavy European rearmament, though severe crew fatigue is emerging in deployed naval assets.

Financials / Banks↑ Risk-on● Changed

Bank of America announced a $250 billion initiative for US critical infrastructure and is taking a 49.9% stake in India's Jio Credit for $1.9 billion.
Goldman Sachs is acquiring ETF provider Neos in a deal valued up to $2.25 billion.
JPMorgan stock reached a new all-time high, and the bank raised its target for Singapore stocks.
Charles Schwab launched single stock futures for over 50 US stocks.
Commonwealth Bank reported a FY cash profit of A$10.98 billion, exceeding estimates.
MUFG is launching instant JGB transactions via blockchain.
The ECB is leaning toward approving UniCredit's bid for Commerzbank.
Jane Street is repaying $5.5 billion in floating-rate loans to overhaul its $11 billion debt load.
Switzerland launched a consultation on stricter bonus rules for bankers.

Current situation: Global lenders are aggressively expanding through multi-billion dollar infrastructure plays and strategic acquisitions, while the adoption of blockchain for sovereign debt transactions is accelerating.

Earnings / Corporate● Changed

Foxconn reported revenue of $29.4 billion, a 54.2% year-over-year increase, with net income of $1.9 billion.
Blackstone and Canadian pension funds acquired 25% of Air Canada’s Aeroplan loyalty program for $1.8 billion.
Tata Sons Chairman N. Chandrasekaran resigned following a boardroom deadlock and lack of approval for his reappointment.
Sanrio shares dropped up to 20% after first-quarter operating income missed estimates.
Singapore Airlines recorded a loss of approximately S$1 billion on its investment in Air India.
General Motors established a $4.5 billion plan to guarantee the supply of critical auto parts.
Rakuten shares experienced their largest drop in six months after missing quarterly operating profit estimates.
Asiana shareholders approved a merger with Korean Air.

Current situation: Corporate activity is marked by extreme divergence, with AI-driven hardware providers seeing massive growth while aviation bets and Indian conglomerates face significant leadership and financial setbacks.

Nuclear / Energy Transition↑ Risk-on● Changed

South Korea set a 2035 target for the commercialization of indigenous small modular reactors (SMRs) and launched seven seed projects in nuclear, biotech, space, and quantum.
South Africa’s Eskom is targeting data center demand to utilize its power surplus.
Hungary began constructing a riverbed structure at the city of Paks to maintain water levels for its sole nuclear facility.
The Swiss government recommended that parliament and voters reject a proposal to ban financial institutions from funding new fossil-fuel mining.
France's EDF reduced output at the St Alban 1 reactor to 260 MW for several hours on August 13 due to environmental issues.

Current situation: The push for energy independence is intensifying via state-led SMR commercialization targets and the integration of nuclear power with the AI data center boom.

Bonds / Yields↓ Risk-off● Changed

The US 10-year note auction drew a high yield of 4.683%, the highest level since 2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since 2007, settling at 4.000%.
Japan's 2-year JGB yield hit a fresh high of 1.63%, with the 40-year yield rising to 4.055%.
South Korea's 30-year government bond yield climbed to a record high.
India's 10-year yield rose to 6.7889%.
China's Finance Ministry sold 50-year special treasury bonds at 2.2831%.
Bonds issued by Air Baltic fell to deeply distressed levels following a debt-for-equity swap announcement.

Current situation: Long-end yields are hitting historic peaks across the US, Japan, and South Korea, reflecting a global surge in inflation concerns and a precarious environment for sovereign debt.

Crypto

Crypto Regulatory / Institutional↓ Bearish● Changed

Bitwise has reduced its workforce by approximately 14% due to the prolonged slump in digital-asset prices.
New York City has launched a probe into Polymarket and Kalshi.
The CFTC has ordered Kalshi to continue operations despite attempts by the New York government to shut the firm down.
FlightAware has withdrawn its lawsuit against Kalshi regarding flight-cancellation markets.
UK regulators are reportedly preparing a framework for tokenized gold.

Current situation: Institutional instability is mounting as workforce cuts increase, while the regulatory landscape remains highly conflicted between federal mandates and local New York enforcement actions.

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