Gold & Hard Assets

Last updated: July 18, 2026

Bullion experienced extreme volatility this week, plummeting below $4,000 as U.S. military strikes in Iran sparked inflation fears and hawkish Federal Reserve commentary. Spot gold hit a low of $3,994.86, contributing to a single-day wipeout of over $1 trillion across gold and silver markets. However, prices recovered to settle near $4,008.18, supported by softer-than-expected U.S. CPI data and structural central bank demand, highlighted by a 48-tonne purchase from China.

Industrial metals are currently fragmented by severe operational disruptions and geopolitical headwinds. Copper faces significant supply constraints, with Codelco reporting a 18.3% year-on-year production drop in May to 106,300 tons, while Rio Tinto saw a 7% sequential decline in Q2 output due to a smelter outage at Kennecott. In Australia, BHP workers in the Pilbara conducted their first major strike since 2000, and Alcoa reduced alumina production forecasts due to refinery problems. These outages are contrasted by strategic expansions, such as the BHP-Itochu Ministers North Iron Ore Project targeting 20 million tonnes annually by H2 2028.

Investment implications center on gold's role as a resilient central bank hedge despite short-term sensitivity to U.S. interest rate expectations. While precious metals oscillate around the $4,000 mark, industrial metals offer tactical opportunities driven by physical scarcity in copper and nickel, as noted by Volvo Cars reporting price increases in the latter. The divestment trend in luxury assets continues, with Anglo American selecting a preferred bidder for the sale of De Beers.

Key variable to watch: The impact of heavy rain and snow in central Chile on copper mining activity and shipments.

Last updated: July 11, 2026

Bullion experienced high volatility this week, transitioning from a rally driven by weak U.S. jobs data to weekly losses as U.S. strikes on Iran reignited inflation concerns and expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes. Spot gold peaked at 4,176 before dropping to a low of $4,022.99 and ultimately settling near $4,071.09. Despite this short-term turbulence, long-term sentiment remains bullish, evidenced by Bernstein raising its 2026 gold forecast to $4,533 per ounce.

Structural demand continues to provide a floor for prices, characterized by record central bank accumulation and the institutionalization of trading hubs. World central banks purchased 41 tonnes in May, and China's central bank maintained its longest gold buying streak since 2015. In China, a spot gold ETF has become the country's largest exchange-traded fund. Infrastructure developments also accelerated with the launch of Hong Kong's gold clearing system trial and Citi becoming the fifth bank to clear transactions in London's OTC gold market.

Industrial metals are fragmented, with copper and iron ore gaining momentum while others face headwinds. Iron ore is on track for its first weekly rise in a month due to supply constraints and a looming July 16 strike at BHP’s Port Hedland terminal. Copper saw positive momentum from a $14.7 billion expansion approval for BHP's Escondida mine, though Codelco reported a sharp decline in May production. Conversely, silver prices declined to $58.14, prompting China's largest solar manufacturer to begin replacing silver with copper in cell production.

Investment implications focus on a divergence between safe-haven gold and supply-shocked industrial metals. Bullion remains a hedge against escalating Middle East conflict and systemic inflation, while industrial metals offer tactical opportunities based on production deficits in iron ore and copper. The devaluation of diamonds, marked by deep De Beers price cuts, suggests a shift away from luxury hard assets toward strategic and industrial commodities.

Key variable to watch: The outcome of the July 16 iron ore workers' strike at BHP’s Port Hedland terminal.

Last updated: July 04, 2026

Bullion experienced extreme volatility this week, initially plummeting to $3,943—a November 2025 low—as retail demand faded and global gold-backed ETFs saw outflows of 38.3 tonnes, the largest weekly drop since September 2022. This downward trend, which put gold on track for its worst quarter since 2013 with a projected 13% loss, reversed following comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The market interpreted these remarks as less hawkish than feared, triggering a rally that pushed spot gold to $4,162.85 and toward the $4,200 level.

Structural support for gold remains strong as the European Central Bank reported that gold has overtaken U.S. government bonds as the world's top reserve asset. China continues to drive demand, importing 163 tonnes in May, the largest monthly volume since March 2024. Further institutionalization of the asset is expected next week with the launch of a gold clearing and settlement system in Hong Kong. Despite these gains, UBS cut its year-end gold forecast to $5,000 per ounce, citing the impact of higher interest rates.

Industrial metals faced conflicting pressures between AI-driven demand and structural headwinds. Copper hit record highs above $14,000 per metric ton due to AI data center needs before retreating to $13,278.50, though it recovered later in the week on a weaker dollar. Aluminum suffered its steepest monthly loss since 2008, driven by a strong dollar and substitution trends as Ferrari, BMW, and Tesla shifted from copper to aluminum. However, significant capital is still flowing into the sector, highlighted by an $11.5 billion investment plan by Adani Enterprises and International Holding in India, and Alcoa's acquisition of South32's aluminum assets for up to $5.6 billion.

Investment implications shift toward a recovery play based on cooling Fed hike expectations and the expanding role of gold as a primary reserve asset. While precious metals are rebounding, industrial metals are fragmented; copper remains a play on AI infrastructure, while aluminum faces price pressure from returning Middle Eastern supply and currency strength. Strategic trade moves in China, including curbs on Fortescue iron ore inventories and the planned launch of sulphur futures, add a layer of geopolitical volatility to the base metals complex.

Key variable to watch: The implementation and impact of the EU's new steel import quotas starting July 1, which reduce tariff-free imports by 47%.

Last updated: June 29, 2026

Spot gold experienced significant volatility this week, dipping to its lowest level since November 2025 before recovering to close near $4,039.89 per ounce. The initial decline, which saw prices slip below $4,000 to as low as $3,962.11, was driven by reduced safe-haven demand following reported progress in U.S.–Iran peace negotiations. However, bullion rebounded after softer-than-expected U.S. PCE inflation data tempered expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes, weakening the dollar and Treasury yields.

Structural demand from China remains a primary pillar of support, with May gold imports reaching a two-year high of 163 tonnes. This marks the third consecutive month of imports exceeding 150 tonnes, with Jan–May volumes up 76% year-on-year. Conversely, the retail landscape in China is tightening as major banks shut down services that facilitate retail precious-metal trading, creating a divergence between institutional accumulation and retail access.

Industrial metals showed mixed signals with LME inventories falling for both aluminum and copper. However, Shanghai aluminum futures hit their lowest level of 2026, dropping 3.13% to 22,730 yuan per metric ton, while tin futures fell over 3% on weak industrial demand. In the broader hard asset complex, gold formed a “death cross” amid falling oil prices and yields, while silver saw a mid-week peak of $67.12 before retreating under $60.

Investment implications center on the tension between strong sovereign demand and hawkish Fed expectations. While the central bank bid from China provides a structural floor, gold remains pressured by a long-term decline of over 20% since the start of the war. Short-term volatility is currently heightened by sensitivity to inflation gauges and commentary from former regulators like Kevin Warsh.

Key variable to watch: The impact of the European Union's planned 15% tax on aluminum scrap exports on global pricing.

Last updated: June 28, 2026

Gold held near $3,050 this week, consolidating after the spike above $3,100 earlier in the month driven by Hormuz escalation and dollar weakness. The pullback is technical — the structural bid remains intact. Central banks globally bought 287 tonnes in Q1 2026, the strongest Q1 on record, led by China, India, Poland, and Turkey. This institutionalised buying provides a price floor independent of Western ETF flows, which remain relatively flat.

Real yields — the primary driver of gold in traditional macro models — have fallen modestly as the market prices more Fed cuts for late 2026. At current real yield levels (-0.1% on 10-year TIPS), gold's fair value on the traditional model would be around $2,600–2,700. The gap between model value and spot price ($350+) reflects the premium the market is assigning to the central bank bid and geopolitical hedging demand. This premium has been persistent and is arguably the new baseline.

Silver is the more asymmetric trade within the hard assets complex: the gold/silver ratio remains elevated at 88x (historically normalises to 65–75x in commodity bull markets), and silver has both monetary and industrial demand drivers through solar panel manufacturing. Key variable to watch: China's stimulus stance — any meaningful Chinese growth acceleration would simultaneously boost industrial silver demand and gold's appeal as a currency hedge against the resulting dollar weakness.