Gold & Hard Assets

Last updated: September 26, 2026

Precious metals experienced a volatile week, initially breaking out on record Chinese demand before retreating as energy-driven inflation revived Federal Reserve rate hike expectations. Gold peaked near $4,375 per ounce but ended the week lower, fluctuating between $4,325 and $4,245 before stabilizing around $4,282. Despite the price pullback, structural support remains potent; global central bank holdings have reached a century peak, and physical gold-backed ETFs saw their third-largest weekly inflow since January, totaling 27.1 tonnes. China’s strategic accumulation is accelerating, with imports for the first eight months of 2026 reaching 1,141 tonnes, already surpassing the total for all of 2025.

Industrial metals shifted from monetary hedging to a narrative of acute physical bottlenecks. Copper futures hit all-time highs, surging over 70% since January 2025, driven by collapsing Shanghai inventories and planned refinery maintenance in China for October and November. While prices eventually retreated alongside gold due to U.S. Treasury yield pressure, structural deficits loom with a significant supply shortfall expected from 2027 onward. Supply volatility is further compounded by climate shocks, specifically El Niño-driven droughts forcing output cuts at Indonesian nickel smelters and operational suspensions at BHP’s Escondida copper mine.

The strategic minerals landscape is increasingly defined by resource nationalism and Western diversification efforts. Tungsten has emerged as a critical flashpoint, with prices up approximately 775% since early 2025 due to Chinese export curbs. In response, U.S. producer Elmet secured over eight years of supply via a stake in Vietnam’s Masan, and South Korea approved Almonty’s tungsten mine to serve Western markets. While Norway plans a major rare earth project by 2028, China continues to expand its dominance, with JL Mag planning to increase rare-earth magnet capacity by 20,000 tons by 2028 to maintain its 94% global manufacturing share.

Investment implications center on a divergence between short-term macro volatility and long-term structural scarcity. While gold remains sensitive to Fed tightening and energy prices, the floor is being raised by unprecedented sovereign and ETF demand. Industrial metals are transitioning from cyclical assets to strategic ones, where geopolitical access and physical availability outweigh traditional interest rate correlations. Investors should prioritize assets with secured non-Chinese supply chains for tungsten and rare earths, as resource nationalism intensifies.

Key variable to watch: Whether Chinese copper refinery maintenance and port congestion trigger a secondary price spike despite hawkish Federal Reserve signals.

Last updated: September 19, 2026

Precious metals transitioned from temporary volatility to a decisive breakout this week, decoupling from hawkish U.S. monetary policy. Despite a Federal Reserve rate hike and an 88% probability of further tightening driven by hot inflation data, spot gold climbed to $4,346.40 per ounce and silver surged to $67.19 per ounce. This rally was fueled by massive inflows exceeding $500 billion into bullion ahead of the Fed decision, alongside a structural eastward reallocation of gold from the New York Fed to the Bank of England.

Chinese accumulation remains the primary structural driver, with the People's Bank of China acquiring an estimated 35 tonnes via London OTC markets in July—75% above official disclosures. Chinese gold ETFs added 11 tonnes in August, bringing total holdings to 293 tonnes, the highest level since April 2024. This demand is further supported by a yuan midpoint fixed at its strongest level since February 2023, enhancing Chinese buying power.

Industrial metals face heightened volatility from resource nationalism and geopolitical friction. While copper steadied near $14,000 a ton as warehouse deliveries eased supply squeezes, tungsten has become a flashpoint with export bans in Zimbabwe and scrap lockdowns in the U.S. Simultaneously, Beijing is squeezing Western supply chains for yttrium and other rare earths. Diversification efforts are underway, evidenced by the U.S. Pentagon's $450 million investment for a 20% stake in Element Group and Almonty Industries' agreements with Rwanda and Sandvik.

Investment implications center on the diminishing impact of real rates on gold as sovereign strategic demand overwhelms traditional monetary headwinds. The divergence between precious metals and industrial assets is widening, with the latter increasingly sensitive to "resource wars" and targeted trade interventions. Investors should note the unprecedented shift in vaulting and the role of non-traditional lenders like Tether, which provided $1.5 billion to a top U.S. dealer.

Key variable to watch: Whether undisclosed Chinese OTC gold purchases continue to outpace official reports, providing a permanent floor regardless of Fed policy.

Last updated: September 12, 2026

Gold prices remained volatile, fluctuating near $4,400 per ounce as safe-haven demand from Middle East tensions and inflation risks clashed with hawkish U.S. monetary expectations. Strong U.S. payrolls data pushed bets for a September interest-rate hike to approximately 60%, capping upside and driving spot prices as low as $4,348 per ounce before recovering to $4,400.09. Despite this short-term pressure, structural support is intensifying; global physical gold-backed ETFs saw record August inflows of $17.9 billion, and the People’s Bank of China purchased 20 tonnes of gold in August, matching its largest monthly purchase since October 2023.

Geopolitical diversification continues to reshape reserve holdings. European central banks are moving gold out of U.S. vaults to rethink storage locations, while Russian gold flows to Hong Kong have hit record highs in 2026, with imports reaching $14.4 billion in the first seven months. Other sovereign actors are similarly expanding holdings, with Kazakhstan’s gold and foreign currency reserves increasing 11.8% month-on-month in August. Conversely, Turkey has deployed over $50 billion in reserves, including gold, to defend the lira.

Industrial metals experienced a sharp divergence this week. Copper hit a fresh record high of $14,858.50 per ton on the LME, driven by AI data center demand and anticipated U.S. tariffs on refined metal, though it ended the week with its first weekly loss since June after White House tariff plans stalled. Iron ore briefly reclaimed $100 per ton on pre-holiday restocking but subsequently suffered its steepest weekly loss since June due to deteriorating steel mill margins. Zinc and coking coal also retreated, while Zimbabwe's tungsten export ban drove a 10% rise in ALM.

Investment implications center on a widening gap between monetary and industrial assets. Gold maintains a robust structural floor supported by aggressive central bank accumulation and record ETF inflows, even as U.S. rate-hike bets create temporary price ceilings. Industrial metals are increasingly sensitive to Chinese demand fragility and U.S. trade policy uncertainty, shifting from a supply-driven rally to a volatility-heavy environment. Investors should note that while gold remains a structural hedge, industrial metals like copper are now reacting sharply to the viability of specific trade tariffs.

Key variable to watch: Whether the stalled White House copper tariff plan triggers a broader correction in industrial metals or if AI-driven demand sustains the record-high floor.

Last updated: September 05, 2026

Gold reached a historic structural milestone this week, officially overtaking the U.S. dollar as the world's largest global reserve asset. Prices experienced extreme volatility, dropping to a three-week low of $4,285.39 per ounce due to hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric and rising bond yields, before surging as gold futures broke $4,500 per ounce—adding $1 trillion in market cap in a single day. This volatility was countered by strong structural demand, including $7.3 billion in weekly inflows and continued central bank accumulation, with the People's Bank of China adding nearly 20 tonnes in July.

Geopolitical distrust is accelerating the physical repatriation of reserves, highlighted by the Dutch central bank moving 86 tonnes ($12.1 billion) from North America to London to mitigate concentration risk. In the industrial sector, zinc hit a four-year high on tightening supply, and Chinese coking coal contracts rose to 2,245 yuan per metric ton. Strategic efforts to decouple from China and Russia intensified, with the U.S. providing $174 million to Alcoa for a gallium plant in Australia and Larvotto Resources launching a new antimony mine in the same region.

Investment implications are defined by a conflict between short-term macroeconomic headwinds and long-term structural shifts. Strong U.S. payrolls data has renewed rate-hike bets, battering the recent safe-haven rally in gold and silver, which fell to $64.78 per ounce. However, the designation of gold and silver as legal tender in Texas and the continued buying streak by global central banks provide a robust floor. Investors should note the divergence in industrial metals, where lithium and zinc remain bullish on energy storage and supply deficits, while cobalt is reversing its rally due to increased Congolese exports.

Key variable to watch: Whether strong U.S. labor data sustains a Federal Reserve rate-hike cycle sufficient to override the structural trend of gold as the primary global reserve asset.

Last updated: August 29, 2026

Gold experienced a volatile week, initially surging nearly 8% to close at $4,657 per ounce before suffering a sharp correction to $4,464.15. This reversal was triggered by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stating that price stability is now the Federal Reserve's predominant focus. Despite the late-week drop, the period saw significant structural support, including $6.4 billion in physical gold-backed ETF inflows—the largest since January—and record net futures bets increasing by $22.2 billion. Additionally, reports revealed China acquired 40 tonnes of gold in June via the London OTC market, a 167% increase over officially reported figures.

Industrial metals shifted toward supply-driven peaks and trade-induced friction. Copper prices tested all-time highs as U.S. tariff threats upended the existing surplus, while Canada introduced 50% tariffs on U.S. copper wire. Supply constraints intensified due to flooding at a major Zijin Mining Group mine in the Congo and a lawsuit challenging the Copper Creek project in Arizona. Zinc also reached a four-year high amid thin physical supply, prompting Boliden to acquire a majority stake in Nexa Resources for $1.3 billion.

Investment implications have shifted from a parabolic momentum trade to a high-volatility environment sensitive to Fed rhetoric. Gold miners are capitalizing on the rally, with Gold Fields doubling its first-half dividend and Harmony Gold reporting doubled annual profits. In industrial metals, the focus has moved from AI-driven demand to geopolitical trade wars and operational disruptions in Africa. Silver remains vulnerable to industrial substitution, as high prices led solar manufacturers to reduce usage this week.

Key variable to watch: Whether the Federal Reserve's renewed focus on price stability triggers a sustained correction in gold or if underreported central bank buying provides a floor.

Last updated: August 22, 2026

Precious metals have entered a parabolic rally, with spot gold reaching a 14-week high of $4,606.99 per ounce. This surge is driven by a structural shift in global reserves; gold now accounts for 26.3% of top central-bank reserve assets, overtaking U.S. Treasuries (20.2%) for the first time since 1996. Institutional appetite is accelerating, with $5 trillion added to gold and silver positions over the past month and $3.5 billion in physical gold-backed ETF inflows last week alone. While Wells Fargo lowered its year-end gold target range to $4,900–$5,100, other traders forecast prices approaching $5,000.

Industrial metals experienced extreme volatility as a historic copper squeeze peaked and then partially eased. Copper prices surged toward record highs, with LME spot prices trading up to $545 per ton above three-month futures, driving Freeport-McMoRan to an all-time high. BHP reported that copper revenue has overtaken iron ore as its primary annual profit driver for the first time. The squeeze eased late in the week as LME on-warrant stocks jumped by 35,650 tons, the largest increase since 2024.

Strategic resource competition remains intense, evidenced by the Export-Import Bank of Korea lending $1 billion to Glencore to secure copper for South Korean AI industries. Other critical mineral moves include a $500 million U.S. government allocation for minerals projects and a merger between Silver47 and Bunker Hill to create a U.S.-based silver and critical minerals entity. In contrast, the iron ore sector faces continued distress, marked by layoffs at Radiant World following the withdrawal of several banking counterparties.

Investment implications have shifted from consolidation to a high-momentum trend in precious metals as they displace sovereign debt as the primary reserve asset. Copper remains a high-conviction play on AI-driven structural deficits, though short-term volatility has increased as LME supply dynamics normalize. Coking coal presents a new momentum opportunity following a 25% price surge.

Key variable to watch: Whether gold can maintain its trajectory toward $5,000 as it fundamentally replaces U.S. Treasuries in central bank portfolios.

Last updated: August 15, 2026

Precious metals entered a phase of consolidation after a volatile surge, with spot gold peaking at $4,448.83 before retreating toward $4,300 as traders assessed the Federal Reserve's rate-hike path. This follows a week where gold breached the $4,400 resistance level, supported by a 14-session streak of Chinese gold-backed ETF inflows and the Bank of Korea establishing a $250.4 million stake in the SPDR Gold Trust. China remains the primary structural driver, adding 20 tonnes to its gold reserves in July, its largest monthly purchase since October 2023. Silver mirrored this strength, with spot prices rising over 3% to $65.53 per ounce.

Industrial metals are experiencing a severe bifurcation driven by acute supply crunches in AI-essential minerals. Copper reached a record high outside of January, breaching $14,000 per ton due to U.S. stockpiling and rising Chinese orders, while spot prices on the London Metal Exchange surged above later-dated futures. This is compounded by production downgrades from Codelco and Antofagasta in Chile, as well as smelter delays in Indonesia. Simultaneously, tungsten prices have surged up to 800% due to a Chinese supply squeeze impacting the defense and AI sectors.

In contrast, iron ore remains a point of volatility and risk. Prices declined due to weak market demand, and the U.S. DOJ and CFTC are investigating deals made by iron ore trader Radiant World, to whom Glencore reportedly has over $500 million in exposure. In the equity markets, Australian mining stocks saw their best week in nearly two years, while Rio Tinto secured a $1.8 billion government bailout to maintain its largest aluminum smelter.

Investment implications have shifted toward a bifurcated strategy: gold offers a consolidation entry point amid central bank accumulation, while copper presents a high-conviction play on supply deficits. The extreme surge in tungsten and copper suggests that AI-driven demand is decoupling strategic minerals from broader industrial trends. Meanwhile, iron ore exposure carries heightened counterparty and demand risk.

Key variable to watch: Whether the consolidation of gold near $4,300 holds or if Fed rate-hike expectations trigger a deeper correction.

Last updated: August 08, 2026

Precious metals entered an explosive phase this week, with spot gold surging above $4,200 to reach a peak of $4,285.76 and futures hitting a fresh eight-week high near $4,400. This rally was driven by a massive flight to safety, Middle East uncertainty, and aggressive Chinese accumulation. China added to its state reserves for the 21st consecutive month, bringing reserves to $306.35 billion as of July, while retail investors poured over $1 billion into gold ETFs during a 14-day buying streak. Silver mirrored this momentum with a weekly gain exceeding 12%, closing at $64.56 per ounce.

Industrial metals are experiencing extreme volatility and divergence. LME copper climbed to $14,316 per ton, approaching record highs as U.S. traders ramped up stockpiling to hedge against potential refined import tariffs. However, supply pressures are mounting following a DRC ban on copper and cobalt concentrate exports and the suspension of Codelco’s Andes Norte project due to seismic activity. In contrast, iron ore plummeted to a 13-month low of 695 yuan per metric ton on the Dalian exchange, slipping below $100 as the market weighs weak demand against a 5.9% increase in Chinese imports through July.

Strategic shifts in asset management and regulation are redefining the hard asset landscape. China has ended retail paper gold trading to prioritize physical infrastructure, offshore gold vaults, and cross-border settlement networks. Institutional appetite remains high, with the Bank of Korea resuming physical gold purchases for the first time in 13 years and Tether increasing its Q2 gold holdings by 14 tonnes to a total of 146 tonnes. In the U.S., the discovery of a massive tungsten deposit faces a regulatory roadblock from NASA, while Worley has secured a strategic contract for cobalt refining and black mass recycling.

Investment implications have shifted from volatility management to capitalizing on a structural bullion surge, with Deutsche Bank setting a year-end fair value for gold at $4,700. While precious metals and copper benefit from safe-haven demand and strategic stockpiling, iron ore and nickel face significant downward pressure from weak demand and potential Indonesian quota increases. The bifurcation between surging bullion and sliding industrial base metals suggests a market prioritizing monetary hedges over industrial growth.

Key variable to watch: Whether the DRC export ban and Chilean production disruptions trigger a parabolic spike in copper despite the broader industrial slowdown.

Last updated: August 01, 2026

Spot gold experienced high volatility this week, peaking at $4,103.67 following the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady, before retreating nearly 2% to $4,024.69. Silver mirrored this volatility, rising to $59.32 before dropping 3% to $57.17. Demand remains structurally supported by aggressive Asian accumulation, with China importing 173 tonnes of gold in June and Hong Kong reporting its highest gold imports since late 2014. Other strategic buyers included Ghana, which allocated 5 billion cedis ($429 million) for reserves, and Tether, which added 14 tons of gold in Q2 to bring total holdings to $18.8 billion.

Industrial metals are facing severe supply-side constraints. Chile reported its weakest second-quarter copper production since 2007, exacerbated by storms that forced Barrick to evacuate workers. This scarcity has contributed to record copper prices, driving a profit jump and dividend increase for Anglo American. However, structural hurdles persist; Codelco's chairman ruled out a return to pre-pandemic output by 2030, and BHP Group faces potential rolling 24-hour strikes at Port Hedland. Simultaneously, Japan is diversifying critical mineral sources through seabed extraction and a $34 million investment in a Namibian rare earth venture via Toyota Tsusho.

Investment implications are bifurcated between precious metal sentiment and industrial operational risk. In equities, Rio Tinto reported higher first-half profits driven by AI-demand for metals, while Laopu Gold lost $2.1 billion in market value due to slowing Chinese sales. Corporate restructuring is evident as Anglo American considers selling De Beers for approximately $1 billion. The market is currently weighing the relief of a Fed pause against a firm U.S. dollar and emerging labor and weather disruptions in the copper sector.

Key variable to watch: Whether Chilean production lows and Australian labor strikes trigger a sustained price spike in industrial metals despite a broader slowdown in China.

Last updated: July 25, 2026

Gold transitioned from an oscillation range to a peak of $4,155.87 per ounce this week, driven by safe-haven demand amid Middle East volatility. This momentum reversed late in the week, with spot gold retreating to approximately $4,046.12 as oil prices climbed above $100. This price action reflects a tension between geopolitical risk premiums and the prospect of Federal Reserve rate hikes to combat oil-led inflation. Despite this volatility, gold has officially overtaken U.S. Treasuries as the world's largest reserve asset for central banks, supported by China's June gold imports reaching a two-year high and a 48-tonne purchase in May via the London OTC market.

Industrial metals are characterized by strategic repositioning and supply disruptions. Chile is targeting $100 billion in copper investments over the next decade to meet data center demand, although winter rains caused mudslides that impacted the copper-exporting region. Copper markets in China hit a one-year high due to scrap shortages, while a Chinese-owned mine in Pakistan faced a militant blockade. In other metals, the U.S. announced aluminum tariff cuts to support the defense supply chain, and Japan initiated deep-sea rare earth mining tests to reduce reliance on Chinese supply.

Investment implications are split between precious metal volatility and industrial scarcity. Silver showed high beta, peaking at $60.55 per ounce before dropping to $57.95. In equities, Newmont beat Q2 adjusted EPS estimates ($2.10 vs $1.99) but missed revenue targets, while Sandvik and Epiroc saw share declines due to lower precious metal prices earlier in the year reducing orders. Strategic moves include Andrew Forrest taking a 16.8% stake in tungsten producer EQR and NovaGold Resources acquiring John Paulson's 40% stake in the Donlin Gold project.

Key variable to watch: The impact of oil prices on Federal Reserve interest rate policy and its subsequent pressure on gold's safe-haven premium.

Last updated: July 18, 2026

Bullion experienced extreme volatility this week, plummeting below $4,000 as U.S. military strikes in Iran sparked inflation fears and hawkish Federal Reserve commentary. Spot gold hit a low of $3,994.86, contributing to a single-day wipeout of over $1 trillion across gold and silver markets. However, prices recovered to settle near $4,008.18, supported by softer-than-expected U.S. CPI data and structural central bank demand, highlighted by a 48-tonne purchase from China.

Industrial metals are currently fragmented by severe operational disruptions and geopolitical headwinds. Copper faces significant supply constraints, with Codelco reporting a 18.3% year-on-year production drop in May to 106,300 tons, while Rio Tinto saw a 7% sequential decline in Q2 output due to a smelter outage at Kennecott. In Australia, BHP workers in the Pilbara conducted their first major strike since 2000, and Alcoa reduced alumina production forecasts due to refinery problems. These outages are contrasted by strategic expansions, such as the BHP-Itochu Ministers North Iron Ore Project targeting 20 million tonnes annually by H2 2028.

Investment implications center on gold's role as a resilient central bank hedge despite short-term sensitivity to U.S. interest rate expectations. While precious metals oscillate around the $4,000 mark, industrial metals offer tactical opportunities driven by physical scarcity in copper and nickel, as noted by Volvo Cars reporting price increases in the latter. The divestment trend in luxury assets continues, with Anglo American selecting a preferred bidder for the sale of De Beers.

Key variable to watch: The impact of heavy rain and snow in central Chile on copper mining activity and shipments.

Last updated: July 11, 2026

Bullion experienced high volatility this week, transitioning from a rally driven by weak U.S. jobs data to weekly losses as U.S. strikes on Iran reignited inflation concerns and expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes. Spot gold peaked at 4,176 before dropping to a low of $4,022.99 and ultimately settling near $4,071.09. Despite this short-term turbulence, long-term sentiment remains bullish, evidenced by Bernstein raising its 2026 gold forecast to $4,533 per ounce.

Structural demand continues to provide a floor for prices, characterized by record central bank accumulation and the institutionalization of trading hubs. World central banks purchased 41 tonnes in May, and China's central bank maintained its longest gold buying streak since 2015. In China, a spot gold ETF has become the country's largest exchange-traded fund. Infrastructure developments also accelerated with the launch of Hong Kong's gold clearing system trial and Citi becoming the fifth bank to clear transactions in London's OTC gold market.

Industrial metals are fragmented, with copper and iron ore gaining momentum while others face headwinds. Iron ore is on track for its first weekly rise in a month due to supply constraints and a looming July 16 strike at BHP’s Port Hedland terminal. Copper saw positive momentum from a $14.7 billion expansion approval for BHP's Escondida mine, though Codelco reported a sharp decline in May production. Conversely, silver prices declined to $58.14, prompting China's largest solar manufacturer to begin replacing silver with copper in cell production.

Investment implications focus on a divergence between safe-haven gold and supply-shocked industrial metals. Bullion remains a hedge against escalating Middle East conflict and systemic inflation, while industrial metals offer tactical opportunities based on production deficits in iron ore and copper. The devaluation of diamonds, marked by deep De Beers price cuts, suggests a shift away from luxury hard assets toward strategic and industrial commodities.

Key variable to watch: The outcome of the July 16 iron ore workers' strike at BHP’s Port Hedland terminal.

Last updated: July 04, 2026

Bullion experienced extreme volatility this week, initially plummeting to $3,943—a November 2025 low—as retail demand faded and global gold-backed ETFs saw outflows of 38.3 tonnes, the largest weekly drop since September 2022. This downward trend, which put gold on track for its worst quarter since 2013 with a projected 13% loss, reversed following comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The market interpreted these remarks as less hawkish than feared, triggering a rally that pushed spot gold to $4,162.85 and toward the $4,200 level.

Structural support for gold remains strong as the European Central Bank reported that gold has overtaken U.S. government bonds as the world's top reserve asset. China continues to drive demand, importing 163 tonnes in May, the largest monthly volume since March 2024. Further institutionalization of the asset is expected next week with the launch of a gold clearing and settlement system in Hong Kong. Despite these gains, UBS cut its year-end gold forecast to $5,000 per ounce, citing the impact of higher interest rates.

Industrial metals faced conflicting pressures between AI-driven demand and structural headwinds. Copper hit record highs above $14,000 per metric ton due to AI data center needs before retreating to $13,278.50, though it recovered later in the week on a weaker dollar. Aluminum suffered its steepest monthly loss since 2008, driven by a strong dollar and substitution trends as Ferrari, BMW, and Tesla shifted from copper to aluminum. However, significant capital is still flowing into the sector, highlighted by an $11.5 billion investment plan by Adani Enterprises and International Holding in India, and Alcoa's acquisition of South32's aluminum assets for up to $5.6 billion.

Investment implications shift toward a recovery play based on cooling Fed hike expectations and the expanding role of gold as a primary reserve asset. While precious metals are rebounding, industrial metals are fragmented; copper remains a play on AI infrastructure, while aluminum faces price pressure from returning Middle Eastern supply and currency strength. Strategic trade moves in China, including curbs on Fortescue iron ore inventories and the planned launch of sulphur futures, add a layer of geopolitical volatility to the base metals complex.

Key variable to watch: The implementation and impact of the EU's new steel import quotas starting July 1, which reduce tariff-free imports by 47%.

Last updated: June 29, 2026

Spot gold experienced significant volatility this week, dipping to its lowest level since November 2025 before recovering to close near $4,039.89 per ounce. The initial decline, which saw prices slip below $4,000 to as low as $3,962.11, was driven by reduced safe-haven demand following reported progress in U.S.–Iran peace negotiations. However, bullion rebounded after softer-than-expected U.S. PCE inflation data tempered expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes, weakening the dollar and Treasury yields.

Structural demand from China remains a primary pillar of support, with May gold imports reaching a two-year high of 163 tonnes. This marks the third consecutive month of imports exceeding 150 tonnes, with Jan–May volumes up 76% year-on-year. Conversely, the retail landscape in China is tightening as major banks shut down services that facilitate retail precious-metal trading, creating a divergence between institutional accumulation and retail access.

Industrial metals showed mixed signals with LME inventories falling for both aluminum and copper. However, Shanghai aluminum futures hit their lowest level of 2026, dropping 3.13% to 22,730 yuan per metric ton, while tin futures fell over 3% on weak industrial demand. In the broader hard asset complex, gold formed a “death cross” amid falling oil prices and yields, while silver saw a mid-week peak of $67.12 before retreating under $60.

Investment implications center on the tension between strong sovereign demand and hawkish Fed expectations. While the central bank bid from China provides a structural floor, gold remains pressured by a long-term decline of over 20% since the start of the war. Short-term volatility is currently heightened by sensitivity to inflation gauges and commentary from former regulators like Kevin Warsh.

Key variable to watch: The impact of the European Union's planned 15% tax on aluminum scrap exports on global pricing.

Last updated: June 28, 2026

Gold held near $3,050 this week, consolidating after the spike above $3,100 earlier in the month driven by Hormuz escalation and dollar weakness. The pullback is technical — the structural bid remains intact. Central banks globally bought 287 tonnes in Q1 2026, the strongest Q1 on record, led by China, India, Poland, and Turkey. This institutionalised buying provides a price floor independent of Western ETF flows, which remain relatively flat.

Real yields — the primary driver of gold in traditional macro models — have fallen modestly as the market prices more Fed cuts for late 2026. At current real yield levels (-0.1% on 10-year TIPS), gold's fair value on the traditional model would be around $2,600–2,700. The gap between model value and spot price ($350+) reflects the premium the market is assigning to the central bank bid and geopolitical hedging demand. This premium has been persistent and is arguably the new baseline.

Silver is the more asymmetric trade within the hard assets complex: the gold/silver ratio remains elevated at 88x (historically normalises to 65–75x in commodity bull markets), and silver has both monetary and industrial demand drivers through solar panel manufacturing. Key variable to watch: China's stimulus stance — any meaningful Chinese growth acceleration would simultaneously boost industrial silver demand and gold's appeal as a currency hedge against the resulting dollar weakness.